The Association of Interior Realtors has released the latest Statistics for January 2023. Click on the image below to enlarge or PDF documents included in the links below.
Vancouver, BC – February 6, 2023. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2023 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in BC are forecast to decline 7.1 per cent to 75,150 units this year. In 2024, MLS® residential sales are forecast to post a strong rebound, rising 23.8 per cent to 93,025 units.
“A slowing economy and still elevated mortgage rates are expected to keep housing activity lower than normal through much of 2023,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, we expect a strong recovery, boosted by an expected decline in mortgage rates and record high immigration that will carry significant momentum into 2024.”
Inventories have increased from the depleted level at the beginning of 2022, but they remain low compared to historical levels, despite a sharp decrease in sales. However, the abrupt shift in market conditions has meant that prices have come down despite low inventory, falling from peak levels through the spring before stabilizing toward the end of last year. While we expect MLS® average prices to trend relatively flat this year, they will be lower than the peak values of 2022. Consequently, year-over-year comparisons will register negative for much of 2023, likely resulting in negative annual price growth even if monthly prices begin to recover as expected later this year.
For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.
Click here to visit to BCREA’s website. To view other statistics for the Kamloops and BC real estate market click here.
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“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
As the Bank of Canada aggressively raised rates over the past year to fight multi-decade-high inflation, fears are mounting that tighter monetary policy will push the Canadian economy into recession. Indeed, central banks have a poor historical track record in achieving “soft landings” following tightening cycles. That is, amid high inflation, central banks often struggle to “thread the needle” of raising rates enough to bring inflation back down to 2 per cent without tipping the economy into a recession.
In this Market Intelligence, we summarize how past Canadian recessions have impacted the BC economy and housing market and look forward to how the BC housing market may perform during a potential 2023 recession.
Summary Findings High interest rates mean that recession anxiety is mounting: – Historically, home sales tend to lead the business cycle, starting to decline many months before the start of a recession. – – By the time the recession begins, sales are typically near their nadir. – Prices follow a less predictable pattern surrounding recessions. The early 1980s involved a large run up and crash in prices, but subsequent recessions involved a modest softening or plateauing of prices before the ascent resumed. Historically, home sales tend to post substantial recoveries following a recession as interest rates are cut to support the economy. – Strong economic fundamentals and demographics support the housing sector in British Columbia.
To view the latest Market Intelligence report PDF, click here.
Market Intelligence is published by the British Columbia Real Estate Association. Real estate boards, real estate associations and REALTORS® may reprint this content, provided that credit is given to BCREA by including the following statement: “Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Additional economics information is available here on BCREA’s website.
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The Association of Interior Realtors has released the latest Statistics for December, Quarter 4 & Year End 2022. Click on the image below to enlarge or PDF documents included in the links below.
