BCREA Mortgage Rate Forecast March 2024

BCREA has released it’s latest Mortgage Rate Forecast for March for 2024. They outline the main highlights as:
– Canadian mortgage rates down sharply to start 2024.
– The Canadian economy – no recession yet, but growth is very slow.
– Waiting for the Bank of Canada to cut.

Click Here to download the full document. The report is summarized below.

Mortgage Rates

In early October 2023, Canadian five-year bond yields reached a 17-year high at 4.42%. However, within four weeks, they dropped by more than 100 basis points. This significant swing in borrowing costs was triggered by better-than-expected inflation data in both the US and Canada, starting in early fall and continuing through the end of 2023. Consequently, financial markets adjusted their expectations for the timing and extent of monetary easing by the Bank of Canada towards more aggressive rate cuts in the future.

Although bond yields rose slightly in February after the initial drop, the current trend suggests a five-year fixed mortgage rate of approximately 5.2%, which is close to the current average offered rate by major lenders and not far from the anticipated rates by the end of 2024. Discounts on variable rates have increased from prime minus 30 basis points to prime minus 60 basis points, leading to a slight decline in average variable rates. However, a more significant decrease in variable rates is anticipated to occur once the Bank of Canada initiates rate cuts.

Economic Outlook

The Canadian economy narrowly avoided a technical recession in the fourth quarter with meager growth. However, various indicators suggest a fragile economy. Falling real GDP per capita and negative growth in Private Domestic Demand indicate underperformance. Though real gross domestic income recently returned to positive territory, it remains a concern. Despite this sluggishness, the labor market shows surprising resilience. Job growth, though not matching population expansion, persists, with over 40,000 jobs added in February. The national unemployment rate remains steady at around 5.8%, close to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, wage growth has exceeded 5% for the past three months, significantly outpacing inflation.

Bank of Canada Outlook

Financial markets exaggerated expectations at the end of 2023, pricing in six rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, which is unlikely. However, it’s highly probable that the Bank will start lowering its policy rate this year, with consensus suggesting a cut of up to 2.5%, or 250 basis points. The timing of the first rate cut remains uncertain, but markets heavily favor a 25 basis point cut at the June meeting, with over a 90% probability of a total 100 basis points cut by December. The Bank’s decision in March emphasized the need for progress in bringing core inflation below 3% to avoid premature actions. Considering the significant drop in core inflation in February and the sluggish economy, an April rate cut is plausible, and if not April, then almost certainly June.

Click here to visit to BCREA’s website. To view other statistics for the Kamloops and BC real estate market click here.

If you want to be kept informed on Kamloops Real Estate, News and more visit our Facebook Page.

To search for Kamloops real estate and homes for sale click here.

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.

BCREA Housing Market Update for March 2024

BCREA released it’s latest Housing Market Update for March of 2024. BC Real Estate Association Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson discusses the February 2024 statistics.

Home sales were up in February by 15.3% over last year’s sales. This is about 10% below the 10 year average for February. Year over year, active listings were up 20.3% this is an increase from last year however the listing activity for 2023 was very slow. Last year we saw the slowest pace of new listings on the market in the province since 2005. The market in BC remains in the balanced territory but there is still a fairly low level of activity. The average price for BC homes sold in February was $988,000, that is up 4.7% year over year compared to an average price of $944,000 in February 2023. While prices are up from last year the trend in BC home prices is flat for the most part since the Summer of 2023.

In Kamloops we saw 163 sales in the month of February which is a 4.5% increase year over year. The average price was down 0.3% to $614,261. The number of active new listings has also increased 18.2% to 953 active listings in the area. This equates to 5.8 months worth of supply.

Click here to visit to BCREA’s website. To view other statistics for the Kamloops and BC real estate market click here.

If you want to be kept informed on Kamloops Real Estate, News and more visit our Facebook Page.

To search for Kamloops real estate and homes for sale click here.

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information

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BCREA: Provincial Housing Market Relatively Calm Heading into Spring

Vancouver, BC – March 13, 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,497 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) systems in February 2024, an increase of 15.3 per cent from February 2023. The average MLS® residential price in BC in February 2024 was up 4.7 per cent at $987,798 compared to an average price of $943,574 in February 2023. The total sales dollar volume was $5.4 billion, an increase of 20.7 per cent from the same time in the previous year.

“The BC housing market is in a period of relative calm entering the spring,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While activity is picking up, home sales remain below normal, and home prices have been essentially flat since last summer.”

Active listings are up 20.3 per cent over last year as a result of slower sales but also a recovery in new listings in January and February following a very slow year for listings activity in 2023. Last year was the slowest pace of new listing activity since 2005.

Click here to visit to BCREA’s website. To view other statistics for the Kamloops and BC real estate market click here.

If you want to be kept informed on Kamloops Real Estate, News and more visit our Facebook Page.

To search for Kamloops real estate and homes for sale click here.

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.

BCREA: Housing Market Activity Picks Up to Start 2024

Vancouver, BC – February 13, 2024. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 3,979 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) systems in January 2024, an increase of 29.4 per cent from January 2023. The average MLS® residential price in BC in January 2024 was up 10.5 per cent at $957,909 compared to an average price of $866,922, the low-point for average prices over the past two years. The total sales dollar volume was $3.8 billion, an increase of 42.9 per cent from the same time in the previous year.

“Home sales are on a clear uptrend to start 2024,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “A sharp decline in fixed mortgage rates and expectations for future Bank of Canada rate cuts is driving sentiment in the market and bringing pent-up demand off the sidelines.”

The total number of active listings, though up year-over-year, remains relatively low by historical standards. New listings activity has shown signs of normalizing following a down year in 2023. A steady pace of new inventory will be crucial in keeping markets balanced as sales accelerate.

Click here to visit to BCREA’s website. To view other statistics for the Kamloops and BC real estate market click here.

If you want to be kept informed on Kamloops Real Estate, News and more visit our Facebook Page.

To search for Kamloops real estate and homes for sale click here.

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.” BCREA makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.

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