Bank of Canada Likely to Hold Interest Rates Until July 2013: BMO

Mortgage Information, National Real Estate News

This article appeared in the Financial Post on July 3rd, 2012.

TORONTO — The Bank of Montreal predicted Tuesday that the Bank of Canada will keep interests rates lower for longer than it expected.

Economists at the bank now believe the central bank will not raise its key rate until July 2013, six months later than their earlier prediction of January 2013.

Senior economist Michael Gregory said the change stems from the easing policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, a downgraded Canadian economic outlook and tightened mortgage rules.

The changes, which include a cut to the maximum amortization period for government insured mortgages cut to 25 years from 30, should stem some fears around growing household debt that would otherwise push the Bank of Canada to increase rates sooner.

“The tightening of the government’s mortgage insurance rules does serve to act like higher interest rates specifically for that sector,” Gregory said. “So that takes some of the urgency away from the Bank of Canada to adjust rates any time soon.”

The Bank of Canada has kept its key interest rate at one per cent since September 2010.

The rate affects the prime lending rates at Canada’s major banks and in turn influences all kinds of interest rates including those charged to variable rate mortgages and lines of credit.

Gregory said he expects that the Bank of Canada will change its projections for economic growth when it releases its new monetary policy report on July 18.

“I suspect it will show softer growth in Canada, partly because of global factors and in part because of what’s going on in the U.S,” said Gregory.

CMHC Housing Market Outlook for British Columbia in 2012 and 2013

B.C. Real Estate News

CMHC Canadian Mortgage and Housing CorporationVICTORIA, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Marketwire – June 14, 2012) – According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) Second quarter Housing Market Outlook British Columbia Highlights Report, housing starts in British Columbia are forecast to increase in 2012 and 2013.

“Home builders are expected to gradually ramp up residential construction in response to positive signals from the resale market and economic developments,” explained Carol Frketich, CMHC’s BC Regional Economist.

Housing starts are forecast to increase to 28,600 homes in 2012 and 30,100 homes in 2013. This increase in residential construction follows a period of stable home building in 2011. Job creation and population growth will boost single-detached home starts in 2012 and 2013. Multiple-family home starts will continue their upward trend.

The resale market is forecast to maintain balanced supply and demand conditions in 2012. A slightly higher sales-to-new listings ratio, reflecting stronger demand for ownership housing, is projected for 2013 alongside an expected modest pick-up in economic growth. Sales of existing homes are forecast to increase to 79,100 MLS®1 transactions in 2012 and 82,400 in 2013. The annual average MLS® price is forecast to moderate slightly to $548,100 in 2012 and increase to $566,900 in 2013.

More detailed CMHC housing market forecasts are available for the Vancouver, Abbotsford-Mission, Victoria and Kelowna Census Metropolitan Areas in the suite of Housing Market Outlook Reports available online. Forecasts for Prince George, Kamloops and Nanaimo are available in the Housing Market Outlook British Columbia Highlights Report.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.

For more information, and to download CMHC’s housing reports, please visit CMHC’s website at www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation or call 1-800-668-2642.

1 Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) is a registered trademark owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association

Canada Housing Starts Slow in May as Expected

National Real Estate News

TORONTO (Reuters) – Canadian housing starts slowed as expected in May after a red-hot April, retreating to the average of the last six months, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp said on Friday.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts was 211,400 units, compared with 243,800 units in April. The April figure was revised down from 244,900 units reported previously.

The number of starts in May was just below the forecasts of analysts in a Reuters poll, who had expected 212,000 starts.

“As anticipated, the pace of housing starts observed in April was not sustained in May. In fact, the pace in May was more in line with the average over the last six months,” said Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist at CMHC.

“Although some ups and downs are likely to continue in the months ahead, the pace of housing starts should trend lower as the year progresses,” Laberge said in a statement.

The slowdown was led by a decline in multiple family urban starts, which fell 20.7 percent to 125,300 units, while urban single starts decreased 4.2 percent to 64,300 units.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 15.8 percent to 189,600 units in May.

Canada’s hot housing market has sparked fears of a bubble, particularly in Toronto, Canada’s largest city, where low interest rates have driven a condominium building boom and double-digit annual price increases in existing home sales.

May’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 35.8 percent in Québec, by 18.3 percent in Ontario, and by 7.7 percent in the Prairies. Urban starts increased by 6.4 percent in Atlantic Canada and by 20.9 percent in British Columbia. In each region, the decrease or increase was mainly due to changes in multiple starts.

(Reporting By Andrea Hopkins; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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