B.C. Real Estate Association’s Fall 2009 Housing Forecast For The Kamloops Real Estate Market

The B.C. Real Estate Association recently released their 2009 Fall Housing Forecast. I have included the info specific to Kamloops below. You can also view the full PDF at the bottom of the page.

The Kamloops housing market is exhibiting balanced conditions and stable home prices, with buyers and sellers on equal footing. MLS® residential sales in Kamloops are estimated to decline 2 per cent this year to 2,200 units. However, an increasingly diversified local economy has lessened the impact of the recession and will contribute to a double digit rebound in home sales next year.

While an increase in home sales to end users has been evident of the past several months, recreation buyers have yet to come back into the market in significant force. Recreation buyers typically lag improved market conditions and are expected to increase their buying activity in 2010. MLS® residential sales are forecast to rise 18 per cent to 2,600 units in 2010. From a historical perspective, homes sales in 2010 will post a similar level to that recorded in the 2003-2004 period. Despite the financial crisis and a global recession, the average MLS® residential price in Kamloops is estimated to be down 2 per cent on an annual basis from a record $307,369 in 2008.

In contrast to the last 18 months, home prices in Kamloops are expected to be relatively stable in 2010, albeit forecast to climb 2 per cent to $308,000 as an annual average. Larger price appreciation in 2010 is less likely as improvement in the economy will be offset by expected increases in mortgage interest rates during the latter half of the year.

After declining 24 per cent in 2008, housing starts in the Kamloops CA are estimated to fall an additional 28 per cent to 415 units this year. A slowdown in the expansion of the housing stock helps support home prices in both the new and resale housing markets. However, lower inventory levels and stronger consumer demand is expected to induce increased new construction activity in 2010. A total of 545 housing starts are forecast for the Kamloops CA next year, with the largest increase occurring in single detached construction.

To view the full report click here:  BCREA Fall 2009 Housing Forecast

New Changes To Strata Laws Benefit Owners, Buyers and Renters In B.C.

This news release came out from the Ministry of Housing and Social Development September 21, 2009. Do you think these changes will affect the sale of strata real estate in Kamloops?

Changes to the Strata Property Act will create more rental housing and improve the dispute resolution process for strata owners and strata corporations, Housing and Social Development Minister Rich Coleman announced today.

“These amendments will help owners and buyers protect their hard-earned investments,” said Coleman. “As well, in new strata developments, owners, tenants and buyers will have greater flexibility to rent a strata unit, creating more rental units, which we know are in demand in our tight housing market here in British Columbia.”

The proposals will mean that new strata corporations cannot change rules about rental units that impact the rights of owners and purchasers or the marketability of the units. Owners will be able to continue to rent their units until the date the rental period originally disclosed by the developer expires. Existing strata owners will not be affected by the change.

“We support legislative amendments that will result in more rental units coming onto the market,” said Martha Lewis, executive director of the Tenant Resource and Advisory Centre. “It is upsetting to have condo units sitting empty at a time when many people are searching for appropriate housing. The sooner the amendments come into effect, the better.”

The proposed changes will allow disputes to be heard in Small Claims Court, rather than the B.C. Supreme Court. Strata corporations and strata owners will also be able to use arbitration or mediation rather than going to court. Strata corporations will have to provide audited financial statements and obtain depreciation reports to help them prepare for future repairs or upgrades. Owners and potential buyers will be able to access these reports.

The amendments also confirm that strata corporations can set age restriction bylaws to create adult and seniors’ communities, under both the Strata Property Act and the BC Human Rights Code.

The Strata Property Act provides a framework for the creation and operation of strata developments in British Columbia and sets out the guidelines under which strata corporations must operate. Amendments were previously introduced earlier in 2009.

Contact:
Seumas Gordon: Media Relations Officer,  Ministry of Housing and Social Development Phone: 250 387-6490

Link

B.C. Real Estate Association’s Housing Forecast for 2009 to 2010

The B.C. Real Estate Association released their Spring 2009 housing report recently. I have included the Kamloops specific information below from this report. Click here for the full report from BCREA.

Homes sales in Kamloops are beginning to rebound from the lows experience during the fall and winter months. While the weaker provincial economy will continue to impact housing demand, sales activity is expected to improve through the balance of the year. A sizable increase in affordability is beginning to increase first-time buyer activity in the marketplace. The combination of lower home prices and historically low mortgage interest rates has made homes more affordable than at any time in the last two years. At the beginning of April, the carrying cost on the average priced home was 24 per cent less than a year ago. An increase in first-time buyers lubricates the chain of ownership by allowing move-up buyers to more easily sell their current homes and complete their new purchase.

While home sales are expected to improve in the coming months, low sales levels in the first quarter will pull down the annual total. MLS® residential sales in Kamloops are forecast to decline a further 17 per cent to 1,860 units this year. A moderate improvement is expected in 2010, with MLS® residential sales expected to climb 8 per cent to 2,000 units.

Recent data suggests market conditions in Kamloops are improving. Active listings are trending lower with home sales edging higher. The large imbalance between supply and demand that was evident early in the year is beginning to wane. A continuation of this trend will likely cause home prices to stabilize in the next quarter. The average annual MLS® residential price is forecast to be 9 per cent lower this year. However, most of this decline has already occurred and more price stability is expected for the balance of the year.

Housing starts in the Kamloops CA will follow the provincewide pull-back this year. Housing starts are forecast to decline 45 per cent to 320 units in 2009 and then increase 14 per cent to 365 in 2010. Slowing growth in the housing stock will help stabilize home prices by reducing the total number of homes available for purchase in Kamloops.

BCREA website.

Economic Uncertainty Drives Real Estate Plunge Across Lower Mainland

I found this article on the Vancouver Sun’s website today. Provincially the real estate market is feeling the squeeze. The Sun reported that real estate sales are down 58% in the Lower Mainland. In Kamloops, the Kamloops and District Real Estate Association released it’s January statistics and our board is reporting 64% drop in residential sales for the month of January. Read below for the full story, it is focused more on the Lower Mainland, but keep in mind our market is not so different here in Kamloops. We are affected by some of the same economic factors that the Lower Mainland is affected by.

Home sales at lowest point since early 1980s, according to reports

Real estate sales across the Lower Mainland crawled along in January, real estate boards reported Tuesday, with consumers reluctant to buy during recessionary times and with expectations that prices will continue to decline.

In Metro Vancouver, Realtors recorded 762 Multiple-Listing-Service sales in January, down 58 per cent from the same month a year ago, and the so-called benchmark price for a typical detached home down 11 per cent to $659,638 compared with January of 2008.

In the Fraser Valley, Realtors booked a similar 59-per-cent decline in sales at 359, and the so-called benchmark for a typical single-family home down 9.6 per cent from the same month a year ago.

Both the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, which covers most of Metro except Surrey, and the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, which takes in Surrey and White Rock, said sales were at levels not seen since the early 1980s.

“We’re seeing the same factors at play: uncertainty in people’s minds about where the economy is going and where their jobs are going,” Robyn Adamache, a market analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said in an interview.

“As well, I think at lease some people are expecting further price reductions and perhaps are holding off on buying waiting for that to happen.”

The B.C. Real Estate Association on Monday released its latest forecast that predicted prices will decline 16 per cent in Metro Vancouver over 2009.

Adamache added that January is traditionally a slow sales month and not a month that can be used to gauge how the year will go, but “we’re sort of well below [sales levels] we’ve seen in previous Januarys.”

Both real estate boards also saw inventories of unsold homes decline in January. In Metro Vancouver, covered by the Greater Vancouver board, January new listings were down 30 per cent to 3,700, and current active listings of 13,966 are down 6,000 from October.

However, Adamache said that sales have slowed so much that the months of supply in unsold inventory has crept up to 11 months, the highest it has been in 10 years.

She added that the ratio of sales to new listings has dropped to a level that has not been seen since at least 1984, the first year for which she has records.

In the Fraser Valley, total inventory of unsold homes in January stood at 8,630 units, 26 per cent higher than January 2008, but 30 per cent lower than the record high inventory recorded last September.

Tsur Somerville, director of the centre for urban economics and real estate at the Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C., said it will be later in the year before we know how much the market is still declining, or whether there has been any stabilization.

The reason, Somerville said, is because the year-over-year comparison is with a month that had relatively high sales, and the dramatic drop-off in Vancouver’s markets did not begin until later in the year.

“I think we’re still declining just because the [sale decline] is 60 per cent versus 40 to 50 per cent,” Somerville said in an interview, “but we won’t get a sense of how much and at what rate until later.”

Dave Watt, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, said the last 10 days of January did see realtor showings and sales pick up relative to the beginning of the month.

Watt said the buyers in the market are “back to looking for a home to purchase and are very much thinking long term.”

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