Financial Post Article: No Real Estate Crash Here?…

I found this article recently by the Financial Post and thought it was worth posting…..

I’ve been hearing a lot of soothing sounds of late coming from the real estate and construction industries. “All is well,” they seem to say. “Don’t panic,” they encourage.

Two days ago, the Canadian Home Builders’ Association, a lobby group, insisted “there is absolutely no merit” in drawing a parallel between the U.S. real estate meltdown and the “cooling” market we are currently experiencing.

In mid-December, meanwhile, the Canadian Real Estate Association announced that national averages aren’t down as much as previously thought, and that it would be changing the methodology by which it calculates home prices, taking into greater account the rural homes that haven’t depreciated as quickly.

Taken at face value, these recent press releases might suggest that now was a great time to buy a house — a convenient conclusion for home builders and real estate agents.

But don’t you believe them. Maybe it’s appropriate that the CREA is changing its methodology to be more inclusive, but now seems to be an awfully convenient time to be doing so. And while it’s true that the Canadian housing boom was not propelled by the loose lending practices and low interest rates seen in the U.S., that doesn’t mean our boom was any less heated. In Canada, housing prices skyrocketed alongside a commodities boom that brought enormous wealth, in particular to western provinces.

So what do you suppose might happen when such a commodities boom crashes down to earth, as has happened over the last four months? If you’re still not convinced, take a look at the numbers below. They show six years of annual housing prices, leading up to their respective peaks, in the United States, as well as four Canadian cities. Also included are the most recent prices, to give you a sense of how far we’ve come down so far. Numbers are from the U.S. Census Bureau and the CREA — before they decided to revise their methodology.

United States
March 2002 – US$227,600
March 2003 – US$233,100 (2.4%)
March 2004 – US$262,900 (15.5%)
March 2005 – US$288,500 (26.8%)
March 2006 – US$305,300 (34.1%)
March 2007 – US$322,100 (41.5%)

Vancouver
May 2003 – $319,783
May 2004 – $370,545 (15.9%)
May 2005 – $418,757 (31%)
May 2006 – $518,176 (62%)
May 2007 – $591,722 (85%)
May 2008 – $624,639 (95.3%)
Most recent – $510,465

Calgary
July 2002 – $196,472
July 2003 – $209,932 (6.9%)
July 2004 – $220,978 (12.5%)
July 2005 – $245,704 (25.1%)
July 2006 – $357,831 (82.1%)
July 2007 – $436,739 (122.3%)
Most recent – $384,243

Toronto
April 2003 – $292,783
April 2004 – $321,131 (9.7%)
April 2005 – $342,032 (16.8%)
April 2006 – $366,683 (25.2%)
April 2007 – $379,025 (29.5%)
April 2008 – $398,687 (36.2%)
Most recent – $368,582

Montreal
July 2003 – $190,402
July 2004 – $218,313 (14.7%)
July 2005 – $222,972 (17.1%)
July 2006 – $253,420 (33.1%)
July 2007 – $263,018 (38.1%)
July 2008 – $277,703 (45.9%)
Most recent – $263,734

B.C. Assessment Information and How It Affects Your Property.

For the 2009 Property Assessment Roll only, BC Assessment will be providing property owners with the market value of properties as of both July 1, 2007 and July 1, 2008. The lower of these two values will become the 2009 assessed value for most properties.

On November 27, 2008, the provincial government passed the Economic Incentive and Stabilization Statutes Amendment Act (Bill 45), which provides special valuation rules for the purpose of the 2009 tax year only. Part 3 of Bill 45 provides that properties valued at market value will, on the 2009 assessment roll, be valued at the actual value calculated using either a July 1, 2007 or July 1, 2008 valuation date, whichever is lower. This initiative is part of the B.C. Government’s economic strategy to provide stability and predictability to British Columbians in response to the downturn in the real estate market which began mid-2008

About 94 per cent of property owners in British Columbia will see an identical or lower assessed value on their 2009 notice compared to 2008. Eighty-two per cent of BC’s 1.85 million properties will reflect last year’s assessed value. Another 12 per cent of properties will be assessed at July 1, 2008 values because that value is lower than July 1, 2007. The remaining six percent have undergone changes that are described online.

If you were wondering if your property taxes were decreasing this is not necessarily the case. BC Assessment does not have a direct role in setting property taxes. Taxing authorities (municipalities, regional districts) set their tax rates for property taxes based on their budget requirements.

For further information or questions about your property assessment visit BC Assessment online here.

Kamloops And District Real Estate MLS Average Price Forecast For 2008 And 2009.

According to British Columbia Real Estate Association’s Housing Forecast Table. The Multiple Listing Service (MLS) average price for Kamloops and District for 2007 was $275,690. The forecast for the MLS 2008 average price is $306,000 and $270,000 for 2009. Don’t feel too bad. It’s just a forecast after all.

Vancouver, BC – October 29, 2008. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its fall 2008 Housing Forecast today.

BC Multiple Listing Service (MLS) residential sales are forecast to decline 28 per cent from 102,805 units in 2007 to 73,700 units this year. A modest 4 per cent increase to 76,500 units is forecast for 2009.

“The erosion of consumer confidence that began with rising fuel prices earlier in the year is continuing, as the global financial crisis and volatile equity marketshave BC households concerned about their own finances,” said Cameron Muir, Chief Economist.

A weaker provincial economy is expected to increasethe jobless rate from 4.4 per cent this year to 4.9 percent in 2009. “While some job losses will occur next year, BC households will remain on a relatively solid financial footing,” added Muir.

The average MLS residential price is forecast toincrease 3 per cent to $453,000 this year. However, home prices peaked in the first quarter and have been edging lower for several months. For 2009, the average price is forecast to decline 9 per cent to $413,000, with most of the decrease having already occurred by the end this year.

Downward pressure on home prices is expected to ease by the second quarter of 2009, as an increase in affordability and consumer confidence induces a modest growth in sales. The inventory of homes for sale is also expected to decline in the coming months as potential home sellers delay putting their homes on the market until conditions improve.

You can find the pdf here:

The British Columbia Real Estate Association fall 2008 Housing Forecast

Home Prices Down. Affordability Improves.

Vancouver, BC – October 15, 2008. British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports residential sales dollar volume on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in BC declined 39 per cent to $2.1 billion in September, compared to September 2007. Residential unit sales were down 34 per cent to 5,107 units during the same period. The average MLS residential price in the province was $412,149, down 7 per cent from September 2007.

“Weaker consumer demand and a large number of homes for sale are having an impact on home prices in the province,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Despite relatively strong fundamentals, consumer confidence is low.

The global liquidity crisis and volatile equity markets are intensifying this sentiment, causing many households to pull back spending on major purchases.”

“However, affordability is improving,” added Muir. “The carrying cost of the average home in the province is now lower than at any time since the end of 2006.”

Year-to-date MLS residential sales dollar volume in the province declined 24 per cent to $27.5 billion compared to the same period last year. Provincial MLS sales declined 28 per cent to 59,742 units, while the average residential price increased 6 per cent to $460,621 over the same period.

Full story and graphs in the pdf link below.

home-prices-down-affordability-improves-british-columbia-real-estate-association

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