BCREA Housing Market Update December 2017
BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) Chief Economist Cameron Muir discusses the November 2017 statistics.
Strong Economy Supporting Elevated Housing Demand, BCREA
Vancouver, BC – December 12, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,731 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in November, an increase of 20.4 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $5.59 billion, up 39.1 per cent from November 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $723,112, up 15.5 per cent from November 2016.
“November was the third consecutive month that BC home sales were above 9,000 units, on a seasonally adjusted basis,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Elevated consumer demand is being supported by strong employment growth, rising wages and favourable demographics.”BC employment increased 3.8 per cent over the last 12 months, totaling over 90,000 jobs. Over the same period, average hourly wages in the province climbed 5.7 per cent to $26.82. Against this backdrop, a large cohort of millennials is entering their household-forming life stage. In addition, some buyers are likely completing purchases now in advance of tighter conventional mortgage qualifications, scheduled for the new year.
Year to date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 6.8 per cent to $69.4 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 8.8 per cent to 98,024 units, while the average MLS® residential price increased 2.2 per cent to $708,150.
Housing Market Facing Headwinds Despite Strong Economy, BCREA 2017 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast
Vancouver, BC – November 28, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 10.4 per cent to 91,700 units in 2018, after an expected 8.8 per cent decrease this year. A record 112,209 unit sales were recorded in 2016. The ten-year average for MLS® residential sales in BC is 84,700 units. Strong economic and demographic fundamentals are supporting elevated housing demand. However, a number of factors are expected to temper home sales in the province next year.
“Housing demand across the province will face increasing headwinds in 2018,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist.”A rising interest rate environment combined with more stringent mortgage stress tests will reduce household purchasing power and erode housing affordability.” The 5-year qualifying rate is forecast to rise 20 basis points to 5.15 per cent by Q4 2018, and the new qualification rules for conventional mortgages will erode purchasing power by up to 20 per cent. “Given the rapid rise in home prices over the past few years, the effect of these factors will likely be magnified.”
The supply of homes for sale is now trending at or near decade lows in most BC regions. The imbalance between supply and demand has been largely responsible for rapidly rising home prices. The combination of weakening consumer demand and a surge in new home completions next year is expected to induce more balanced market conditions, producing less upward pressure on home prices. The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase 3.1 per cent to $712,300 this year, and a further 4.6 per cent to $745,300 in 2018.
BCREA Housing Market Update November 2017
BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) Chief Economist Cameron Muir discusses the October 2017 statistics.