CHMC Presents Revised Forecast For Canada’s Housing Market 2012-2013

This article appeared on on August 19th, 2012 and was written by

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp presented its latest forecast for Canada Housing market on Tuesday 11th August. The report focuses on market trend and condition for the rest of 2012 and 2013. The CHMC’s outlook for the third quarter of this year proves that the market is cooling all across the country and the slowdown will continue throughout 2012 and 2013.

The forecast is largely based on statistics and data collected and compiled by Canada Real Estate Association CREA.

Mortgage Expert, Marcus Arkan, CEO of Syndicate mortgages has said that CHMC’s report confirms what analysts and economists have been saying ever since new mortgage rules were announced. He said, “Since the very day new mortgage rules were announced, the tabloids are filled with speculations and expectations. Most of experts including CHMC itself were warning about a slowdown. Now with the latest stats and figures before us, CMHC has finally confirmed our worst fears.”

According to CHMC, the slowdown will not create a major economic threat but send the market in a more balanced situation for a year or so. The report indicates that the market has shown sustained activity levels for the first two quarters of this year. Due to this sustained growth, there will be a definite slowdown in price growth.

Mr. Arkan highlighted how the latest forecast is slightly different than what CHMC has predicted in June. “The point forecast regarding housing starts in the latest report is higher than what has been predicted in June and the range is slightly wider. This may be because the data and stats from July have provided a far more clear idea of where the market is heading now.”

For 2012, CHMC’s numbers predict that the range of housing starts will remain 96,800 to 217,000, with a point forecast of 207,200 units. For the next year, starts are expected to be in the range of 73,000 to 207,400 units. Similarly, existing home sales will also remain within a moderate range of 442,300 to 485,200 units in 2012, with a point forecast of 466,600 units this year. For 2013, these sales are expected to increase up to 487,600 units.

One thing that Mr. Arkan pointed out as the most interesting part of the CHMC’s latest report is the prediction regarding prices for property sales. The report suggests that the slowdown will not lead to price decline. However, the rate of price growth will slow down to some extent.

According to CHMC’s report from last month, the point forecast for average price was $372,700 for 2012 and $383,600 for 2013. Now according to the latest forecast, the average price shall remain lower at $368,000 for 2012 and $377,300 for 2013.

To view CMHC’s market forecasts, reports and analysis click here.