Category: National Real Estate News

This article appeared in the Globe and Mail on December 30th, 2011 and was written by Katherine Scarrow.

As global housing markets coughed and sputtered in 2011, Canada’s barrelled ahead, even turning a few nervous heads along the way.

In fact, recently the Economist branded Canada one of the nine countries where “home prices are overvalued by about 25 per cent or more,” and among the four where prices are in line with those in the United States “at the peak of its bubble.”

Is there really a cause for alarm? Are we doomed to ride this white-knuckled roller coaster in 2012? Probably not, according to Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist of CIBC.

“The housing market of tomorrow will not be as exciting as the housing market of yesterday,” he said in an interview.

While the current real estate market is overshooting, with home prices far higher than than they should be, we shouldn’t expect a crash either, he explains. As long as interest rates remain relatively low and subprime mortgages kept at bay, the most likely scenario is that the market will plateau.

“Prices are already softening, housing starts aren’t in the sky, MLS [multiple listing service] activity is starting to soften, so it suggests the market is already starting to level off, and that’s what we need,” he said.

How will a more relaxed real estate market affect new home buyers, investors and renovators in 2012? Here are Mr. Tal’s predictions:

1. First-time home buyers

• Affordability and interest rates will be the major concerns in 2012. Prices will continue to be expensive, especially in urban centres like Vancouver and Toronto, since interest rates are likely to remain low for the time being.
• But rates won’t stay low forever, which is why you should estimate mortgage payments based on interest rates that are 2 or 3 percentage points higher than current interest rates, and if you cannot afford that, get a smaller mortgage and buy a less expensive house.
• Expect an end to bidding wars, or at least a temporary ceasefire. New home buyers will have the luxury of time in terms of looking at properties without being rushed into decisions. That’s the positive. The negative is that prices continue to be drastically higher than they were five or 10 years ago.

2. Investors and flippers

• If you’re in it to flip it – meaning you buy a home hoping the price will rise by just doing minimal changes – those days are over.
• In some pockets of the country, you may even see prices go down.

3. Renovators

• The cost of renovations will not increase significantly so long as interest rates remain at their current level, so it’s a good idea to take advantage of this time to finance these projects.
• For those looking to take on a second mortgage, remember to make sure you’re equipped to finance them if interest rates creep up.
• Variable-rate mortgages are still a good option for those who are able to withstand fluctuations in the market and “ride the ups and downs without getting a stomach ache.”

Link

The Demographia 7th Annual International Housing Affordability Survey for 2011 is out. It rates metropolitan markets for affordability of the housing in each market. Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United States and China (Hong Kong) are all discussed. I have included a portion of the report below. You can access the full report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

The 7th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey expands coverage to 325 markets in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. This edition marks the addition of Hong Kong. The Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey employs the ―Median Multiple‖ (median house price divided by gross annual median household income) to rate housing affordability(see chart ES-1 on page 7) . The Median Multiple is widely used for evaluating urban markets, and has been recommended by the World Bank and the United Nations Harvard University Joint Center on Housing.

Housing Affordability in 2010

Housing affordability was little changed in 2010, with the most affordable markets being in the United States and Canada. The United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand continue to experience pervasive unaffordability.

All Markets

Among all 325 markets surveyed, there were 115 affordable markets, 106 in the United States and 9 in Canada. There were 94 moderately unaffordable markets, 74 in the United States, 17 in Canada and 3 in Ireland. There were 42 seriously unaffordable markets and 74 severely unaffordable markets. Australia had 27 severely unaffordable markets, followed by the United Kingdom with 21 and the United States with 15. Canada had 6 severely unaffordable markets, while New Zealand had 4. China’s one included market, Hong Kong, was also severely unaffordable.

Vancouver remains one of the most Severely Unaffordable markets with only Sydney, Australia and Hong Kong being more unaffordable.

Click here to read the full report.

I found this audio track on the NPR (National Public Radio: United States). They discuss the Canadian economic position versus the American. It is a short three minute piece. This was posted by the NPR on December 11th, 2011. I have included the short introduction below and the link to the broadcast.

America’s biggest trade partner, Canada, sailed through the economic downturn almost unscathed, with low unemployment, no mortgage crisis and not a single major bank failure. As part of WBEZ’s Front and Center series, Brian Mann reports on how Canada emerged as one of the world’s most stable and prosperous economies. Link to Audio

Link to article