Category: National Real Estate News

This article appeared on CBC News on October 15th, 2013.

Canadian home sales posted a small month-over-month increase in September and the national average sale price rose but the number of new listings declined, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Home sales were up just 0.8 per cent from August to September, while overall activity remained on par with the 10-year average in September, CREA said.

However, last month’s sales were up 18.2 per cent compared with September 2012 and the average sale price was up 8.8 per cent to $385,906.

Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, highlighted regional shifts as the reason for the spike from last year.

“Regionally, the big story continues to be the snap-back in Vancouver, where sales were up a towering 64.3% year over year in September,” he said in a note to investors.

However, Kavcic says that stripping out volatile markets like Vancouver and Toronto shows a balanced housing market.

“Any worry about a hard landing in Canadian housing has quickly become a faint memory, and underlying conditions are more balanced than the flashy headline results suggest.”

Looking forward, Kavcic sees a softer market by no need for alarm. “Sales in September 2012 [were] slumping in the wake of stricter mortgage rules,” he said.

The association’s MLS Price Index, which is less volatile as it adjust for the characteristics of houses sold, rose by a more modest 3.1 per cent.

“Year-over-year increases in the sales over the past couple of months highlight how activity softened across much of the country following the introduction of tighter mortgage rules last summer,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist.

“While the momentum for sales activity began improving a few months ago, it may be losing steam after having only just climbed back in line with an average of the past 10 years,” he added.

About 340,980 homes have traded hands across the country so far this year, or 1.8 per cent below levels recorded in the first three quarters of 2012.

There were 1.4 per cent fewer newly listed homes in September compared with August, the association said, adding that while the Canadian housing market has tightened, it continues to remain balanced.

Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Calgary, Greater Toronto, London, St. Thomas, Ont., Ottawa and Montreal all saw listing declines.

The Canadian Real Estate Association is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 106,000 realtors working through more than 90 real estate boards and associations.

OTTAWA, February 22, 2013 — Moderation in economic and employment growth in the second half of 2012 has led to more modest housing demand. With continued moderation expected in the first half of 2013, total annual housing starts are expected to be lower in 2013 relative to 2012, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) first quarter 2013 Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition1.

As fundamentals, including employment, economic growth and net migration are expected to gain momentum later in 2013 and in 2014, housing starts are expected to trend slightly higher next year.

“CMHC expects housing construction activity will trend lower in the first half of 2013, before gaining more momentum by the end of the year as economic and employment growth remain supportive of the Canadian housing market,” said Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Chief Economist for CMHC. “In 2014, improving economic conditions may be partially offset by a slight moderation in the number of first-time homebuyers, and potential small and steady increases in mortgage interest rates.”

On an annual basis, housing starts are expected to range between 178,600 to 202,000 units in 2013, with a point forecast of 190,300 units, following a level of 214,827 units in 2012. In 2014, housing starts are expected to range from 171,200 to 217,000 units, with a point forecast of 194,100 units.

Existing home sales are expected to range between 418,200 to 484,000 units in 2013, with a point forecast of 451,100 units, following a level of 453,372 in 2012. In 2014, Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®2) sales are expected to range from 439,600 to 505,000 units, with an increase in the point forecast to 472,300 units.

The average MLS® price is forecast to be between $356,500 and $378,500 in 2013 and between $363,800 and $390,800 in 2014. CMHC’s point forecast for the average MLS® price calls for a 1 per cent gain to $367,500 in 2013 and a further 2.7 per cent gain to $377,300 in 2014.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.

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This article appeared on the Global BC website on November 8th, 2012.

OTTAWA – The pace of home building slowed in October to a softer reading than economists expected in a report by the federal mortgage insurer, providing yet more evidence of a cooling housing market.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Thursday there were 17,507 actual housing starts last month. That translates into a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 204,107 starts, down almost nine per cent from an annual rate of 223,995 recorded in September.

CMHC said there were drops in both single- and multiple-unit starts in urban areas last month.

Declines were recorded in all regions, with Quebec reporting the biggest drop at 16.9 per cent.

“The monthly decrease in total housing starts posted in October was mostly due to a decrease in both single and multiple starts in urban centres in Quebec and the Prairies,” Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist at CMHC, said in a release.

“Multiple starts also declined in many urban centres in Ontario, more than offsetting an increase in such starts in Toronto.”

Seasonally-adjusted urban starts decreased 1.5 per cent in British Columbia, 6.4 per cent in Ontario, 12.3 per cent in the Prairies, and 16.8 per cent in Atlantic Canada.

The agency, which provides mortgage insurance to home buyers and market intelligence to the real-estate industry, estimates rural starts came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 21,973 units in October.

Earlier this week, the federal Crown corporation predicted 177,300 to 209,900 of housing units will be started next year — substantially less than the forecast of 210,800 to 216,600 for 2012.

Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney said the slowdown is consistent with the bank’s expectations.

“We view household formation around 190,000 annualized and the starts are a little north of 200,000, so they’ve slowed from a very rapid pace to a pace that’s still above household formation,” Carney said in Montreal.

“We’re expecting this decreased contribution from housing relative to GDP… We’re starting to see some things that are consistent with that, so it’s entirely consistent with expectations.”

Emanuella Enenajor of CIBC WM Economics noted that “despite low (interest) rates and surprisingly resilient investor demand, housing construction looks to be struggling to attain new heights in recent months.”

“Although the housing starts data tend to be volatile month-to-month, we expect to see a trend in softening starts through 2013, as a slowdown in secondary market activity weights on homebuilding.”

The CMHC data suggests housing starts — where trends tend to lag those in the home resale market — are falling in line with home sales figures released in the last few months, which points to a broader slowdown in Canada’s housing market.

The latest figures from Canadian Real Estate Association found sales in September fell 15.1 per cent from a year earlier, due in large part to a further tightening of mortgage rules and a slowdown in Vancouver.

A real estate expert at Queen’s University called the drop in housing starts in October “significant” and said it’s “clear evidence” that the housing market is slowing down.

“(The numbers) provide sound evidence reinforcing the idea that housing markets in most regions and cities are cooling off rapidly,” John Andrew, director of the Queen’s real estate roundtable, said in a release.

“Housing starts are clearly responding to the decrease in new and existing home sales that we’ve seen in most markets over the past few months, especially for condos. I expect this trend to deepen over the remainder of 2012 and likely into 2013.”

In a global outlook released last month, the International Monetary Fund singled out housing and household debt, which currently sits at a near-record 163 per cent of income, as the key areas of concerns for Canada.

Those concerns have been voiced before, including by Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who has moved four times in as many years to reduce mortgage lending.

Over-saturation, high prices, high debt levels and recent tightening of mortgage rules are impacting the resale market, economists have noted, particularly in the previously torrid markets of Toronto and Vancouver.

Read it on Global News: Global BC | Housing starts fall in October with drops in all regions, CMHC says

This article appeared on DailyMarkets.com on August 19th, 2012 and was written by

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp presented its latest forecast for Canada Housing market on Tuesday 11th August. The report focuses on market trend and condition for the rest of 2012 and 2013. The CHMC’s outlook for the third quarter of this year proves that the market is cooling all across the country and the slowdown will continue throughout 2012 and 2013.

The forecast is largely based on statistics and data collected and compiled by Canada Real Estate Association CREA.

Mortgage Expert, Marcus Arkan, CEO of Syndicate mortgages has said that CHMC’s report confirms what analysts and economists have been saying ever since new mortgage rules were announced. He said, “Since the very day new mortgage rules were announced, the tabloids are filled with speculations and expectations. Most of experts including CHMC itself were warning about a slowdown. Now with the latest stats and figures before us, CMHC has finally confirmed our worst fears.”

According to CHMC, the slowdown will not create a major economic threat but send the market in a more balanced situation for a year or so. The report indicates that the market has shown sustained activity levels for the first two quarters of this year. Due to this sustained growth, there will be a definite slowdown in price growth.

Mr. Arkan highlighted how the latest forecast is slightly different than what CHMC has predicted in June. “The point forecast regarding housing starts in the latest report is higher than what has been predicted in June and the range is slightly wider. This may be because the data and stats from July have provided a far more clear idea of where the market is heading now.”

For 2012, CHMC’s numbers predict that the range of housing starts will remain 96,800 to 217,000, with a point forecast of 207,200 units. For the next year, starts are expected to be in the range of 73,000 to 207,400 units. Similarly, existing home sales will also remain within a moderate range of 442,300 to 485,200 units in 2012, with a point forecast of 466,600 units this year. For 2013, these sales are expected to increase up to 487,600 units.

One thing that Mr. Arkan pointed out as the most interesting part of the CHMC’s latest report is the prediction regarding prices for property sales. The report suggests that the slowdown will not lead to price decline. However, the rate of price growth will slow down to some extent.

According to CHMC’s report from last month, the point forecast for average price was $372,700 for 2012 and $383,600 for 2013. Now according to the latest forecast, the average price shall remain lower at $368,000 for 2012 and $377,300 for 2013.

To view CMHC’s market forecasts, reports and analysis click here.