In 2011 The Canadian Real Estate Market to Resemble 2010: The Canadian Press

This article appeared on January 6th, 2011 on CTV.ca.

TORONTO — The Canadian real estate market will follow a similar pattern this year as that seen in 2010 as buyers pull sales forward into the early months in anticipation of higher interest rates, according to a report from one of Canada’s largest real estate firms.

The aftershocks of the recession, including a lingering low interest rate environment, will continue to influence the Canadian real estate market in 2011 — a year that will be stronger than expected, said the report released Thursday by Royal LePage.

Royal LePage predicts that average home prices will rise three per cent to $348,600 in 2011, driven largely by a rush to buy in the first half of the year in advance of anticipated interest and mortgage rate hikes in the second half.

“Canadians realize that interest rates are unsustainably low and that homes will become effectively more expensive when mortgage rates return to normal levels,” said Phil Soper, president of Royal LePage.

“2011 is expected to unfold much like 2010, when close to 60 per cent of sales volume occurred in the first half of the year in anticipation of interest rate increases that never materialized.”

However, the number of transactions will be slightly lower than last year and activity will be modestly closer to the norm because the pull forward phenomenon last year was exacerbated by a tightening of mortgage qualification rules and the introduction of the HST in Ontario and British Columbia in the middle of the year.

Soper said the extension of low mortgage rates will be an unexpected boon to the market this year.

“Like many Canadians, we anticipated an end to the ultra-low interest rate era before year-end 2010,” he said.

“Paradoxically, global economic weakness, particularly in the United States, allowed policy-makers and financial institutions to keep borrowing costs low, resulting in a stronger Canadian housing market and a better than forecast fourth quarter.”

Average house prices rose between 3.9 per cent and 4.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2010, while price appreciation is expected to continue a moderate and steady climb throughout the current year.

The report contrasts with some recent predictions by economists that prices should remain flat or decline over the next year.

The Canadian Real Estate Association has predicted prices will fall by 1.3 per cent to a national average of $326,000, this year, tied to weakness in British Columbia and Ontario — the hottest real estate markets of 2010. It has also forecasted a nine per cent decline in sales.

CREA has yet to release year-end data for 2010, but preliminary reports from two of the biggest markets, Toronto and Vancouver, released this week indicate 2010 declined as expected.

Sales were down by one per cent compared with 2009 in Toronto, while the average home selling price was $431,463, up nine per cent from 2009.

In Vancouver, sales declined 14.2 per cent from 2009, and were 10.3 per cent below the 10-year average for sales in the region. The average selling price in B.C.’s largest city was up 2.7 per cent at $577,808.

Canada’s real estate market has been on a rebound over much of the past year after sales dried up in late 2008 and hit a multi-year low in January 2009.

The housing market’s sudden plunge was sparked by a credit crunch that developed in the U.S. housing and lending industries, and gradually spread across the globe, causing a worldwide recession in the late summer and early fall of 2009.

The commercial real estate market experienced a similar plunge as investors lost confidence in the sector.

However, the commercial market, which includes office and retail spaces, had a stronger than expected year in 2010 and that momentum is projected to strengthen throughout 2011, according to a report released Thursday by CB Richard Ellis Ltd.

Some market observers had predicted a glut of vacancies in Canada’s major business centres, but that didn’t happen, said John O`Bryan, vice-chairman of CB Richard Ellis Canada.

We`ve had good news over the past twelve months with respect to interest rates, housing trends and employment gains, with many companies announcing plans for expansion, he wrote in the report.

“2011 may well be another good, stable year but should be viewed with cautious optimism in light of the concentration in employment growth on part-time jobs rather than the full-time positions that indicate confidence in long-term, sustainable growth.”

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Kamloops City Handed Out $191-million Worth of Building Permits in 2010

This article was written by Jeremy Deutsch and appeared in Kamloops This Week on January 7th, 2011.

It wasn’t a record, but it was pretty close. By the end of 2010, the city had handed out $191-million worth of building permits, eclipsing 2009’s total of $160 million by more than $30 million.

The city had originally estimated between $120 and $140 million worth of building permits to be taken out in 2010. “It’s a lot better year than we thought,” said David Trawin, the city’s director of development and engineering, adding Kamloops is doing “exceptionally well” compared to other communities in the province.

He attributed the growth in 2010 to a rise in the amount of residential construction around Kamloops, particularly single-family units. The number of residential permits — which includes single-family and multi-family units for 2010 — jumped to 660 from 430 in 2009. Of those residential permits, 300 were for single-family units, more than double 2009 totals.

It was such a busy year at city hall, there is extra money for city council to consider during upcoming budget discussions.

The development and engineering department built up an operating surplus of $1 million from the unexpected boost in construction. Trawin said it will be up to council to to decide what it wants to do with the extra cash.

The city is also taking another conservative approach to its estimates for 2011. Trawin said he expects his department to hand out between $120- and $130-million in building permits. He said the prediction is based on discussions with builders in the city, but noted that number could be larger if a couple of big potential projects come through this year.

However, Trawin wouldn’t divulge the details of the potential developments.

The city has only topped $200 million in permits once — in 2008. In that year, the city doled out $207 million worth of permits, which was a record. Before the beginning of summer, the city handed out $222.5 million in permits for 883 dwelling units in a 12-month period. That proved to be a record.

Kamloops Real Estate: B.C. Property Assessments Ease Up for 2011

This article appeared in the Friday, January 7th, 2011 issue of Kamloops This Week . Many of my clients have experienced an increase in their home’s assessed value. I find it interesting that the majority of them are listed either below their home’s assessed value (some significantly) or very close to the assessed value. Will BC Assessment continue to increase Kamloops home values even though real estate prices have not continued up? This makes it very confusing for home owners wanting to sell their homes especially when the assessed value is much higher than the asking price.

Large jumps in property values around the Tournament Capital that likely caused shock to most residents during the mid-point of the last decade are a thing of the past. For the second year in a row, the majority of Kamloops homeowners will see a modest increase in their property assessments.

According to BC Assessment, the average property owner of a single-family dwelling will likely see their property value increase by 4.7 per cent. Some 33,000 assessment notices in Kamloops for 2011 were sent out this week. The biggest change was in the downtown, where the average property jumped to $392,484 from $348,347, or about 12 per cent.

Other neighbourhoods around town saw more modest increases in assessments. “There was no hot spot in particular in Kamloops,” said Graham Held, a deputy assessor with BC Assessment.

Homes in Sahali and Aberdeen increased to $412,925 from $389,311 , East Kamloops including Juniper Ridge, Dallas and Barnhartvale were up to $394,653 from $375,069 and Batchelor Heights rose to $373,769 from $364,014.

Held said the city isn’t seeing the big market movement of years past, suggesting a diverse economic base in Kamloops has contributed to stability in the real estate market.

The overall assessment roll for the city increased to $13.5 billion from $12.9 billion the previous year. Last year, a majority of property owners in Kamloops were looking at an increase of up to 20 per cent on their 2010 assessments.

It was only a couple of years ago property owners were seeing assessments jump by more than 20 per cent year-after-year. Due to the economic meltdown at the end of 2008, the province decided to put what amounted to a freeze on property assessments for 2009.

There is recourse for residents who are unhappy with their property assessment. They can challenge their assessment by speaking to the appraisal staff or submit a written request by the end of January for an independent review by an assessment panel. The panel will be hearing complaints starting in February and running until March 15.

However, Held encourages residents to go to BC Assessment’s website bcassessment.ca to do as much analysis on their own. He noted a little less than two per cent of assessments in Kamloops end up being disputed.

Link

Open House Weekend: Saturday, January 8, 2011: Aberdeen, Pineview Valley and Upper Sahali

This Saturday, January 8th, 2011 open houses will be held in Aberdeen, Pineview Valley and Upper Sahali.

Kamloops Real Estate MLS Listings 1927 Englemann Crt Pineview Valley Saturday, January 8th, 2011: 11:30-1:00: 1927 Englemann Court, Pineview Valley, $449,900

Beautiful two-storey home located in a quite cul-de-sac in Pineveiw Valley. The main floor features Acadian Walnut hardwood floors, vaulted ceilings, slate fire place, and a bright dining room. more

461 Garibaldi Dr Upper Sahali Kamloops BC Real Estate MLS ListingSaturday, January 8th, 2011: 12:00-1:00: 461 Garibaldi Drive, Upper Sahali, $339,900

Immaculately maintained Upper Sahali rancher with a full basement and great floor plan. There are three bedrooms on the main floor and one bedroom plus a den down. There are two full bathrooms, more

Kamloops BC Real Estate MLS Listing 1189 Howe Rd Aberdeen Saturday, January 8th, 2011: 1:30-3:00: 1189 Howe Road, Aberdeen, $314,900

This Aberdeen doll house has had numerous updates over the past couple years. All the flooring (porcelain tile and laminate) and windows were recently replaced, new hot water tank and it has a fresh coat of paint throughout. more

To view all homes for sale in Kamloops click here.

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