BCREA Housing Market Adjusts to Mortgage Stress Test

BCREA 2019 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – February 25, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2019 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to increase 2 per cent to 80,000 units this year, after recording 78,345 residential sales in 2018. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase a further 6.9 per cent to 85,500 units in 2020. The 10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 85,800 units.

“The negative shock to affordability and purchasing power created by the B20 stress test on mortgage borrowers is expected to continue constraining housing demand in the province this year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Favourable demographics along with continuing strong performance of the BC economy is expected to underpin housing demand over the next two years.”

The policy-induced demand shock has contributed to an increase of the inventory of homes for sale in most regions of the province. As a result, market conditions are expected to provide little upward pressure on home prices this year, with the average annual residential price forecast to remain essentially unchanged, albeit up 0.5 per cent to $716,100. Modest improvement in consumer demand is expected to unfold over the next two years as households further adjust to the mortgage stress test.

To view the full BCREA Housing Forecast, click here.

BC Home Sales Decline 25% in 2018, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – January 15, 2019. TThe British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 78,345 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in 2018, a decline of 24.5 per cent from the 103,758 units sold in 2017. The annual average MLS® residential price in BC was $712,508, an increase of 0.4 per cent from $709,601 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume was $55.8 billion, a 24.2 per cent decline from 2017.

MLS Residential Sales BC 2018

“BC home sales fell below the 10-year average of 84,800 units in 2018,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The sharp decline in affordability caused by the B20 mortgage stress test is largely to blame for decline in consumer demand last year.”

A total of 3,497 MLS® residential unit sales were recorded across the province in December, down 39.1 per cent from December 2017. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $695,647, a decline of 5.2 per cent from December 2017. Total sales dollar volume was $2.4 billion, a 42.3 per cent decline during the same period.

Total active residential listings were up 33.3 per cent to 27,615 units in December, the highest December inventory since 2014 when 33,995 active residential listings were recorded.

BCREA Housing Market Update, December 2018

BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) Chief Economist Cameron Muir discusses the November 2018 statistics.

Home sales across the province were down in November in comparison to the same time last year. December sales are expected to show the same pattern. Saying that, 2017 was a year where the number of active listings were at a historical low. This is one of the reasons for such an active market.

In Kamloops we have seen a similar pattern but not as pronounced as what is being experienced in the Lower Mainland areas. For November 2018, Kamloops was down 5% for the number of sales year over year and 11.4% in terms of dollar value. We are seeing more listings coming on the market in the Kamloops area, although we are still relatively low in inventory. There has been an increase in the number of listings by 4.8% giving our market 4.6 months worth of supply.

While the market appears to be calming down, the statistics show that Kamloops is experiencing much less dramatic market adjustments in comparison to other areas.

BC Home Sales Continue at Slower Pace, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – December 14, 2018. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,179 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) across the province in November, down 33.1 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $718,903, a decline of 1.9 per cent from November 2017. Total sales dollar volume was $3.7 billion, a 34.3 per cent decline from November 2017.

BC Home Sales November December 2018

“BC households continue to struggle with the sharp decline in purchasing power caused by the B20 mortgage stress test,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Most BC regions are now exhibiting relative balance between supply and demand.”

Total active residential listings were up nearly 31 per cent to 33,500 units in November, compared to the same month last year. However, it should be noted that this compares to 2017, when active listings for the month of November were at their lowest level in more than 15 years.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 23.1 per cent to $53.4 billion, compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales declined 23.6 per cent to 74,847 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 0.7 per cent to $713,302.

1 2 3 4 5 52