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OTTAWA – November 15th, 2010 – National resale housing activity rose for the third consecutive month in October 2010, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards climbed 4.6 per cent in October 2010. The monthly rise in activity builds on similar increases in August and September. As a result, activity now stands 13.3 per cent above July levels, when it reached this year’s low point. Three-quarters of local markets posted monthly increases in seasonally adjusted activity in October, led by Toronto and Vancouver.

As further evidence that the market is returning to normal, sales activity in October stood halfway between the recessionary low reached in December 2008, and the record level activity posted in December 2009.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity in October 2010 was 21.6 per below levels for October 2009, when activity set a new record for the month.

National sales activity rebounded last year without a single monthly decline and hit record levels in the second half of 2009. As a result, large declines in activity compared to year-ago levels are masking recent monthly gains in national sales activity. Record level activity late last year is expected to continue stretching year-ago comparisons over the rest of 2010 (Exhibit 1).

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But CMHC predicts sales to slow in 2011.

The Canadian housing resale market was almost five per cent more active in October compared to the previous month, the Canadian Real Estate Association says.

The 4.6 per cent increase in sales on the agency’s Multiple Listing Service follows similar rises in September and August. As a result, activity is 13.3 per cent higher compared to July, the low point for 2010.

“National sales activity is now running almost halfway between the highs and lows posted between late 2008 and late 2009,” CREA chief economist Gregory Klump said. “This suggests that the Canadian housing market may be starting to normalize.”

On a yearly basis, sales remained 21.6 per cent below the level of October 2009, the most active October ever for home sales.

The national average price for homes sold in October 2010 was $343,747, up less than a percentage point compared to a year ago. October was the fourth consecutive month in which the average resale price has remained roughly even with year-ago levels, suggesting a balanced market.

“After the wild roller-coaster ride that many housing markets have been on, normal and stable market conditions are something that many buyers and sellers will likely welcome,” Klump said.

There was 6.2 months worth of housing stock inventory at the end of the month, the group said. Inventory describes how long it would take to sell off all the homes available based on current buying patterns. In September, the figure was 6.5 months.
Housing starts to slow

At the same time, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reported Monday that housing starts are expected to slow in the last three months of 2010 and fall in 2011 from 2010 levels.

The federal housing agency predicted housing starts in the final quarter of 2010 will be in the range of 176,700 to 194,700 in 2010, or approximately 186,200.

In 2011, housing starts will be in the area of 148,000 to 202,300 units, or approximately 174,800 units.

“High employment levels and low mortgage rates will continue to support demand for new homes in 2011,” CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan said in a release.

“Nevertheless, housing starts will decrease to levels are more in line with long term [population growth] next year,” he said.

The agency predicted sales of existing homes also will be lower in 2011.

It forecast sales in the range of 423,800 to 455,900 in 2010, or approximately 440,300 units.

The next year, it estimated, sales will be from about 390,600 to 483,700, or about 438,400.

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Seasonally adjusted national home sales dropped 2.8 per cent from near record levels reported in December. Ontario accounted for about half the national decline. Activity was also down in British Columbia, Alberta, and Manitoba, but reached new heights in Quebec.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) residential sales activity in January 2010 was up 58 per cent from year ago levels, when national home sales activity reached the lowest level in a decade. Because activity began recovering in February last year, large year-over-year gains are expected to shrink over upcoming months.

The average price of all homes sold through the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards in January 2010 was $328,537, up 19.6 per cent from one year ago. In January 2009, the average residential sale price fell to the lowest level in almost three years. Year-over-year average price gains are being stretched by weakness one year ago, and are expected to shrink beginning next month.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the national weighted average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. It climbed 14.9 per cent year-over-year basis in January 2010.

The residential average price in Canada’s major markets also climbed 19.6 per cent year-over-year in January. As with the national counterpart, the price trend is similar but less dramatic for the major market weighted average price, which rose 13.1 from January 2009.

Across Canada, the seasonally adjusted number of new listings on Boards’ MLS® Systems edged up three tenths of one percent on a month-over-month basis in January to reach the highest level since November 2008. New listings rose in British Columbia, Alberta and Newfoundland, offsetting declines in other provinces. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of new residential listings was up 3.4 per cent from one year ago.

“The resale housing market is becoming more balanced in a number of provinces, including my own province of Saskatchewan,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger. “A more balanced market is likely to result in smaller price increases going forward, with buyers in less of a rush due to an increase in supply. That said, market conditions vary across Canada, so buyers and sellers are wise to consult with a REALTOR® since they know current conditions in your local market.”

Strong demand for resale homes continues to draw down supply. There were 170,199 homes listed for sale on Boards’ MLS® Systems in Canada at the end of January 2010, a decline of 18 per cent from levels reported for the same month in 2009. Nationally, there were 4.4 months of inventory in January 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This is up slightly from 4.2 months in December.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of months of inventory in January 2010 stood at 6.6 months. This is well below where it stood one year ago (12.8 months), but slightly higher than it was in the month of January in the years 2004 through 2008. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

“January results suggest that the national resale housing market may be past the recent peak,” said CREA Chief Economist Gregory Klump. “One car doesn’t make a parade, so a few more months of results showing a cooling trend will be required before talk of a Canadian housing bubble begins to fade. It could take until the second half of the year before a cooling trend becomes evident, since home buying activity may continue to be accelerated in the first half of 2010 by expected interest rate increases, and by the introduction of the HST in Ontario and British Columbia on Canada Day.”

Charts and statistics in pdf format can be found here.

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