Category: National Real Estate News

OTTAWA – November 15th, 2010 – National resale housing activity rose for the third consecutive month in October 2010, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

Seasonally adjusted national home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards climbed 4.6 per cent in October 2010. The monthly rise in activity builds on similar increases in August and September. As a result, activity now stands 13.3 per cent above July levels, when it reached this year’s low point. Three-quarters of local markets posted monthly increases in seasonally adjusted activity in October, led by Toronto and Vancouver.

As further evidence that the market is returning to normal, sales activity in October stood halfway between the recessionary low reached in December 2008, and the record level activity posted in December 2009.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity in October 2010 was 21.6 per below levels for October 2009, when activity set a new record for the month.

National sales activity rebounded last year without a single monthly decline and hit record levels in the second half of 2009. As a result, large declines in activity compared to year-ago levels are masking recent monthly gains in national sales activity. Record level activity late last year is expected to continue stretching year-ago comparisons over the rest of 2010 (Exhibit 1).

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The Demographia 6th Annual International Housing Affordability Survey for 2010 is out. It rates metropolitan markets for affordability of the housing in each market. Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States are all discussed. I have included a portion of the report below. You can access the full report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

The 6th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey expands coverage to 272 markets in Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. The Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey employs the “Median Multiple” (median house price divided by gross annual median household income) to rate housing affordability (Table ES-1).

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TABLE ES-1

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY RATING CATEGORIES

RATING                                     MEDIAN MULTIPLE

Severely Unaffordable                                5.1 & over

Seriously Unaffordable                              4.1   –  5.0

Moderately Unaffordable                            3.1   –   4.0

Affordable                                                  3.0 or less

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Historically, the Median Multiple has been remarkably similar among the nations surveyed, with median house prices being generally 3.0 or less times median household incomes. This affordability relationship continues in many housing markets of the United States and Canada. However, the Median Multiple has escalated sharply in Australia, Ireland, New Zealand and the United Kingdom and in some markets of Canada and the United States in recent years.

Over the past year, housing affordability has improved in some markets, remained constant in others and declined in still others. In the United States and the United Kingdom, the “bubble” markets that had “burst” generally reached a trough and began rising again. In the “boom” markets that did not experience a bubble, house prices generally declined in response to the intense economic disruption that occurred after the Lehman Brother‟s collapse, which signaled the “mortgage meltdown” and the “Great Recession,” the steepest economic decline since the Great Depression.

An Increase in Affordable Markets: Of the 272 markets surveyed, there were 103 affordable markets, 98 in the United States and 5 in Canada. This is an improvement from 87 in 2008. As before, the affordable markets include the three highest demand markets with more than 5,000,000 population in the high-income world, Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston. Overall, 19 major markets (more than 1,000,000 residents) in the United States were also affordable (Table ES-2). As in the past, all of these markets were characterized by “more responsive” land use regulation, as opposed to “more prescriptive” land use regulation (see Table 2 in Section 1). Severely Unaffordable Markets: There were 62 severel unaffordable markets this year, down from 64 in 2008. The least affordable markets were concentrated in Australia (22) the United Kingdom (19) and the United States (11). Nine of the 11 US severely unaffordable markets were in California. There were 5 severely unaffordable markets in New Zealand and 5 in Canada (Table ES- 3). However, many of these severely unaffordable markets have experienced steep price declines in the last year. Among the major markets, Vancouver is the least affordable, with a Median Multiple of 9.3, followed by Sydney (9.1), Melbourne (8.0), Adelaide (7.4), London (7.1), New York (7.0) and San Francisco (7.0). As in the past, all of these markets were characterized by more prescriptive land use regulation (such as “compact city,” “urban consolidation,” “growth management” or “smart growth” policies), which materially increase the price of land, which makes housing unaffordable. The national distribution of housing affordability is indicated in Table ES-4.

To read the rest of this report click on the following link: 6th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey 2010

Demographia Website

OTTAWA – February 8, 2010 – The Canadian Real Estate Association has revised its forecast for home sales via the MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate boards in 2010, and extended the forecast to 2011.

With Canadian economic growth rebounding from the recession, the unusually severe decline in sales activity in early 2009 is not expected to recur in 2010.  Annual activity in 2010 is forecast to be well above the previous year’s level as a result.

CREA forecasts national activity will reach 527,300 units in 2010, up 13.3 per cent from 2009. This would represent a new annual record, standing 1.2 per cent above the previous peak in 2007. Low interest rates are expected to boost housing demand in the first half of the year, resulting in strong annual sales growth in nearly all provinces in 2010, led by British Columbia and Ontario.

National home sales activity is expected to remain strong in the first half of 2010, fuelled by low interest rates and homebuyers motivated to avoid the HST before it comes into effect in Ontario and British Columbia.  Over the second half of the year, national activity is expected to trend downward as the last of pent-up demand is exhausted, interest rates begin rising, and the HST comes into effect in Ontario and British Columbia.

Interest rate increases will contribute to weaker national sales activity in 2011.  National home sales activity is forecast to decline 7.1 per cent to 490,100 units in 2011, putting it on par with annual levels reported in 2005 and 2006.

“Although interest rates are expected to rise, they will still be low enough to keep affordability within reach for many homebuyers requiring mortgage financing, and support overall housing demand,” said CREA President Dale Ripplinger.

The national average home price is forecast to climb 5.4 per cent in 2010, reaching a record $337,500, with average price gains forecast in all provinces. The national average price increase will continue to reflect upward skewing from the rebound in activity among Canada’s priciest markets, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario.

The national average price is forecast to ease by 1.5 per cent in 2011. Modest average price gains are forecast for all provinces except British Columbia and Ontario, whose share of national activity is expected to ease. The shift in the contribution made by provinces toward national activity will continue skewing the annual comparison in the national average price in 2011.

The price trend is similar but less dramatic for the weighted national average price, which compensates for changes in provincial sales activity by taking into account provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock. The weighted national average price is forecast to climb 4.8 per cent in 2010, and remain stable in 2011.

“Improved financial market stability and recovering global economic growth mean that home sales activity in 2010 is unlikely to repeat the dive it experienced in late 2008 and early 2009,” said Chief Economist Gregory Klump.

“Fiscal restraint, a strong Canadian dollar and a subdued inflation outlook point to marginal interest rate increases over the next couple of years, especially if the U.S. economic recovery proves to be weak and protracted,” said Klump.

“The Bank of Canada will need time to gauge the effect of interest rate increases on Canadian economic growth,” Klump said.  “It recognizes that consumer debt burdens are running high, so it will want to gauge the impact of interest rate hikes on domestic demand and overall economic growth. Changes in interest rates impact the economy with a lag, so the timing and magnitude of interest rate hikes will be tricky, given that the Bank expects the private sector to lead economic growth once temporary government stimulus spending expires,” he added.

“The decline and subsequent rebound in sales activity for homes in the upper price spectrum in some of Canada’s priciest markets skewed average prices upward in the second half of 2009 and into 2010. This segment of housing activity in Ontario and British Columbia is expected to ease beginning in the second half of 2010, causing average prices to moderate in those provinces,” said Klump.

“A downward trend in national sales activity combined with an increase in listings will result in a more balanced market. Although builders are understandably more upbeat than they were during the depth of the recession, speculative building will likely continue to be held in check. As a result, while the real estate market will become more balanced, Canada will continue to avoid the massive realignment in housing supply and demand experienced in the U.S.”

CREA Residential Market Forecast:

Residential unit sales forecast	2009	2009 Annual percentage change	2010 Forecast	2010 Annual percentage change	2011 Forecast	2011 Annual percentage change
Canada	465,251	7.7	527,300	13.3	490,100	-7.1
British Columbia	85,028	23.4	101,900	19.8	88,800	-12.9
Alberta	57,786	2.5	63,050	9.1	64,000	1.5
Saskatchewan	10,856	6.5	10,900	0.4	11,050	1.4
Manitoba	13,086	-3.2	14,050	7.4	14,350	2.1
Ontario	195,840	8.2	223,700	14.2	200,300	-10.5
Quebec	79,290	3.3	87,950	10.9	85,450	-2.8
New Brunswick	7,003	-7.3	7,550	7.8	7,700	2.0
Nova Scotia	10,021	-7.8	11,400	13.8	11,500	0.9
Prince Edward Island	1,404	-0.6	1,450	3.3	1,450	0.0
Newfoundland	4,416	-5.9	4,900	11.0	5,050	3.1

Residential average price forecast	2009	2009 Annual percentage change	2010 Forecast	2010 Annual percentage change	2011 Forecast	2011 Annual percentage change
Canada	320,333	5.0	337,500	5.4	332,400	-1.5
British Columbia	465,725	2.4	485,500	4.2	476,600	-1.8
Alberta	341,201	-3.3	357,300	4.7	361,700	1.2
Saskatchewan	233,695	4.1	242,500	3.8	248,500	2.5
Manitoba	201,343	5.8	210,300	4.4	215,300	2.4
Ontario	318,366	5.3	332,700	4.5	326,000	-2.0
Quebec	225,412	4.7	240,500	6.7	249,100	3.6
New Brunswick	154,906	6.3	159,400	2.9	164,200	3.0
Nova Scotia	196,690	3.6	200,900	2.1	204,700	1.9
Prince Edward Island	146,044	4.4	149,900	2.6	153,200	2.2
Newfoundland	206,374	15.6	222,300	7.7	238,900	7.5

NOTE: All statistics contained in this release are obtained through analysis of the MLS® Systems of real estate Boards across Canada.

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The Globe and Mail came out with this article today detailing a 7% rise in home sales for March which is the second straight month of improving sales. It is an interesting article but what you have to remember is that spring and summer are typically the busiest times of the year for home sales. In Kamloops, we have seen the real estate market pick up over the last month and that is to be expected as we head into spring and summer. The full article is included below.

The Canadian housing market appears to be stabilizing, with sales activity up in March for the second consecutive month as lower prices drew in more buyers, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Wednesday. Actual transactions were down 13.7 per cent, year over year. This was the smallest decline in six months, the association said. “Housing markets are starting to show signs of buyer interest because of lower prices and interest rates,” Regina real estate agent Dale Ripplinger, CREA president, said in releasing the March results. However, economists were reluctant to characterize the increased sales activity as the beginning of a recovery in the real estate market.

The March statistics were “certainly encouraging,” Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Millan Mulraine said. “Nevertheless, with the Canadian economy continuing to be in a very intense recession, and labour market conditions continuing to worsen at an alarming pace, we expect over-all housing market activity to remain soft in the coming months,” Mr. Mulraine said in a research note. “That’s why we are cautious about interpreting this as the beginning of a long-term trend,” he added in an interview.

A seasonally adjusted total of 31,135 existing homes changed hands in March. “This is an increase of 7 per cent from the previous month, and builds on the 10.3-per-cent activity gain in February,” CREA said in a news release. “The number of transactions in March stands 18 per cent above levels reported in January, 2009, when activity sank to the lowest level in a decade.”

The national average resale price was $288,641 in March, down 7.7 per cent from a year earlier – again, the smallest year-over-year decline in six months, the association said. The largest monthly increases in activity were in British Columbia, at 13.6 per cent, and Ontario, at 10.5 per cent, the association said.

CREA’s chief economist, Gregory Klump, said the sales reflected a “stronger-than-normal seasonal bounce” in a number of markets. “The story is that price reductions are working as intended. They are stabilizing the market and they are drawing buyers …who are taking advantage of improved affordability,” Mr. Klump said, adding that anecdotal evidence indicates that a lot of the buyers are first-time market entrants. “Looking back to economic recessions in the early 1980s and 1990s, national resale housing activity bottomed out before the job market or economy did,” Mr. Klump said. “It will take time for ample supplies of new and existing homes to be drawn down, but demand appears to be stabilizing.”

Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic noted that, despite the recent improvement, sales activity is still down more than 30 per cent from the peak seen in May, 2007. “Still, the improvement in recent months is an encouraging sign that the Canadian housing market has crossed the halfway point for this downturn,” Mr. Kavcic said. “Affordability is the highest in about four years, which should help fuel a rebound in sales once the job market stabilizes,” he said in a research note.

Recent measures in the new federal budget, including an increase in the maximum withdrawal allowed under the Home Buyers Plan and the First Time Buyer Tax Credit, will also lend support to new buyers, Mr. Kavcic said. “While a continued gradual decline in new listings—down 10.9 per cent year-over-year in seasonally adjusted terms—will ultimately help restore the market to balance, the ratio of new listings-to-sales remained slightly elevated at 2.2 per cent in March. “Over-all price declines are still somewhat exaggerated by the changing sales mix (sharper declines in the most expensive cities and higher price ranges), and as such, weighted-average prices are down a more modest 4.7 per cent year-over-year. Still, a widespread 14 of 25 cities are reporting lower prices versus last year,” Mr. Kavcic wrote.

“Western Canada continues to face the most severe price pressure, with average home values still down more than 10 per cent year-over-year in each of Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary and Edmonton. Hard-hit manufacturing centres in Ontario are also posting double-digit declines, while Regina and St. John continue to lead the pack, up 16 per cent year-over-year and 13 per cent year-over-year respectively.” Mr. Kavcic said it remains a buyers’ market. “Further price declines and low mortgage rates will ultimately help trigger a recovery, but a reversal in the wave of job losses is one major pre-requisite still outstanding,” he said.

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