August Home Sales Suggest Impact of Stress Test Fading, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – September 13, 2018. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,743 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) across the province in August, a 26.4 per cent decrease from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $669,776, down 1.2 per cent from August 2017. Total sales dollar volume was $4.5 billion, a 27.3 per cent decline from August 2017.

MLS Residential Sales August September 2018

“The downturn in housing demand induced by the mortgage stress-test is now largely behind us,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The BC housing market is evolving along the same path blazed by Ontario and Alberta, where the initial shock of the mortgage stress-test is already dissipating, leading to increasing home sales.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 19.9 per cent to $41 billion, compared with the same period in 2017. Residential unit sales decreased 21.3 per cent to 57,674 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 1.7 per cent to $719,064.

 

Housing Market Reacts to Mortgage Stress Test: BCREA 2018 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – August 20, 2018. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2018 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

MLS RESIDENTIAL SALES BC AUGUST 2018Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 21 per cent to 82,000 units this year, after recording 103,768 residential sales in 2017. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 8 per cent to 88,700 units in 2019. The 10-year average for MLS® residential sales in the province is 84,800 units.

“The BC housing market is grappling with a sharp decline in affordability caused by tough B20 stress test rules for conventional mortgages,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “While these rules have had a negative effect on housing demand across the country, the impact has been especially severe in BC’s large urban centres because of already strained housing affordability.”

In spite of the policy-driven downturn in housing demand, strong fundamentals continue to underpin the market. Demographics are highly favourable, especially the millennial generation who are now entering their household-forming years. In addition, low unemployment is leading to significant upward pressure on wages and, by extension, household wealth and confidence.

The pullback in BC home sales is helping alleviate a chronic shortage of supply. After trending at decade lows, active listings in the province were up nearly 20 per cent in July. The combination of slower housing demand and an increase in the inventory of homes for sale has trended most markets toward balanced conditions. This means more selection for home buyers, fewer multiple offer situations and less upward pressure on home prices.

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