Author: Kirsten Mason

CHMC Presents Revised Forecast For Canada’s Housing Market 2012-2013

National Real Estate News

This article appeared on DailyMarkets.com on August 19th, 2012 and was written by

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp presented its latest forecast for Canada Housing market on Tuesday 11th August. The report focuses on market trend and condition for the rest of 2012 and 2013. The CHMC’s outlook for the third quarter of this year proves that the market is cooling all across the country and the slowdown will continue throughout 2012 and 2013.

The forecast is largely based on statistics and data collected and compiled by Canada Real Estate Association CREA.

Mortgage Expert, Marcus Arkan, CEO of Syndicate mortgages has said that CHMC’s report confirms what analysts and economists have been saying ever since new mortgage rules were announced. He said, “Since the very day new mortgage rules were announced, the tabloids are filled with speculations and expectations. Most of experts including CHMC itself were warning about a slowdown. Now with the latest stats and figures before us, CMHC has finally confirmed our worst fears.”

According to CHMC, the slowdown will not create a major economic threat but send the market in a more balanced situation for a year or so. The report indicates that the market has shown sustained activity levels for the first two quarters of this year. Due to this sustained growth, there will be a definite slowdown in price growth.

Mr. Arkan highlighted how the latest forecast is slightly different than what CHMC has predicted in June. “The point forecast regarding housing starts in the latest report is higher than what has been predicted in June and the range is slightly wider. This may be because the data and stats from July have provided a far more clear idea of where the market is heading now.”

For 2012, CHMC’s numbers predict that the range of housing starts will remain 96,800 to 217,000, with a point forecast of 207,200 units. For the next year, starts are expected to be in the range of 73,000 to 207,400 units. Similarly, existing home sales will also remain within a moderate range of 442,300 to 485,200 units in 2012, with a point forecast of 466,600 units this year. For 2013, these sales are expected to increase up to 487,600 units.

One thing that Mr. Arkan pointed out as the most interesting part of the CHMC’s latest report is the prediction regarding prices for property sales. The report suggests that the slowdown will not lead to price decline. However, the rate of price growth will slow down to some extent.

According to CHMC’s report from last month, the point forecast for average price was $372,700 for 2012 and $383,600 for 2013. Now according to the latest forecast, the average price shall remain lower at $368,000 for 2012 and $377,300 for 2013.

To view CMHC’s market forecasts, reports and analysis click here.

Kamloops and District Real Estate Associations Statistics For June 2012

Kamloops Real Estate Statistics

The Kamloops and District Real Estate Association has released it’s latest statistics for June 2012 and the second quarter of 2012. Click on the image to enlarge.

Kamloops Real Estate Statistics

Kamloops Real Estate Comparative analysis by property type June 2012

Kamloops Real Estate Statistics Information

Kamloops Real Estate MLS Activity June 2012

Kamloops Real Estate statistics residential sales

Kamloops Real Estate Sales by subarea June 2012

Kamloops Residential Sales Statistics

Kamloops Real Estate Sales by subarea 2nd Quarter 2012

Commercial Projects Brighten Construction Picture for Kamloops

Kamloops Real Estate News

This article appeared in the Kamloops Daily News on July 6th, 2012.

New Construction Kamloops BC Real EstateCommercial and institutional construction is keeping builders in Kamloops busy while residential work is lagging slightly from last year.

City acting chief building inspector Bruce Barclay said Friday the first half of this year has seen construction values surpass $100 million. Last year at this time, those values were at $84 million.

The main driver behind that is business and institutional projects, he said.

For example, there’s a new $12.2-million seniors’ residence going up on Tranquille Road in Brocklehurst.

Single family construction is at $20 milion halfway through the year, while it was at $21.3 million at this point in 2011. Multi-family is down a bit, too, but expected to move upward as demand in that market rises.

Barclay said by the end of the year, he expects the construction-value total to be around $175 million. Pretty good, given an average year in Kamloops is between $120 and $140 million, and that the economy is still considered to be relatively flat.

“We’re on for a very strong year,” he said.

There are still some big-number projects expected to come through City Hall for permits this year, including Telus’s $30-million data centre, $6 million for Walmart’s expansion and $6.5 million for Target’s renovations to its Zellers location.

Kamloops has always paced itself well where commercial and residential construction is concerned, Barclay said.

“We’ve never done a Kelowna or a Vancouver to build it and they will come,” he said.

Instead, the buildings have been constructed as they’ve been needed.

“That’s the way most of our builders work. They’re not going to build without there being something there.”

City community development manager Randy Lambright said the numbers are encouraging, especially given the economy is being described as sluggish to recover from the 2008 recession.

“It’s all good and it can only get better, depending what happens with new industry coming into town with or without Ajax mine,” he said, adding there’s interest from other businesses in coming to town.

“It’s a manageable rate of growth.”

Housing prices are driving a growing interest in multi-family housing, which is raising more questions at City Hall about density and what should be encouraged for infill.

But, overall, all the construction figures for this year are positive, even on the housing side, he said.

Bank of Canada Likely to Hold Interest Rates Until July 2013: BMO

Mortgage Information, National Real Estate News

This article appeared in the Financial Post on July 3rd, 2012.

TORONTO — The Bank of Montreal predicted Tuesday that the Bank of Canada will keep interests rates lower for longer than it expected.

Economists at the bank now believe the central bank will not raise its key rate until July 2013, six months later than their earlier prediction of January 2013.

Senior economist Michael Gregory said the change stems from the easing policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, a downgraded Canadian economic outlook and tightened mortgage rules.

The changes, which include a cut to the maximum amortization period for government insured mortgages cut to 25 years from 30, should stem some fears around growing household debt that would otherwise push the Bank of Canada to increase rates sooner.

“The tightening of the government’s mortgage insurance rules does serve to act like higher interest rates specifically for that sector,” Gregory said. “So that takes some of the urgency away from the Bank of Canada to adjust rates any time soon.”

The Bank of Canada has kept its key interest rate at one per cent since September 2010.

The rate affects the prime lending rates at Canada’s major banks and in turn influences all kinds of interest rates including those charged to variable rate mortgages and lines of credit.

Gregory said he expects that the Bank of Canada will change its projections for economic growth when it releases its new monetary policy report on July 18.

“I suspect it will show softer growth in Canada, partly because of global factors and in part because of what’s going on in the U.S,” said Gregory.

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