BCREA 2019 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast: BC Homes Sales Carry Momentum into 2020

Vancouver, BC – November 6, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2019 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

2019 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast MLS Sales BC

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 1.8 per cent to about 77,100 units this year, after recording 78,505 residential sales in 2018. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 10.9 per cent to 85,500 units in 2020, just below the 10-year average for MLS® residential sales of 85,800 units.

“After a slow start to 2019, MLS® home sales in BC have embarked on a sustained upward trend since the spring,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “The dampening effects of federal mortgage rules mean that rather than a return to the heights of recent years, home sales are simply returning to trend after sustaining a significant shock.”  

As demand normalizes, the accumulation of resale inventory has reversed course in many markets around BC. We anticipate that this trend will continue in 2020, with sales and listings finding balance. For most markets, this will mean price growth that is in-line with inflation, though for some supply-constrained areas we are forecasting strong price growth. We anticipate that the MLS® average price will decline 2 per cent in 2019 before rising modestly by 3.6 per cent to $723,000 in 2020. 

Click here to view BCREA’s Website. Click here to view more statistics.

Market Momentum Continues into the Fall, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – October 15, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,938 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September, an increase of 24 per cent from the same month last year. 

The average MLS® residential price in the province was $697,943, an increase of 2.1 per cent from September 2018. Total sales dollar volume was $4.84 billion, a 26.5 per cent increase from the same month last year.

“Markets across BC built on momentum from the summer,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While the year-over-year increase in provincial sales was quite strong, home sales in most areas are simply returning to historically average levels.”

MLS® residential active listings in the province were up 4 per cent from September 2018 to 39,117 units and were essentially flat compared to August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Overall market conditions remained in a balanced range with a sales-to-active listings ratio of about 18 per cent.    

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 12.4 per cent to $39.7 billion, compared with the same period in 2018. Residential unit sales were 8.9 per cent lower at 57,773 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 3.9 per cent year-to-date at $687,530.   

BCREA: Housing Demand Continues to Recover in August 2019

Vancouver, BC – September 12, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,093 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August, an increase of 4.9 per cent from the same month last year. 

August 2019 Housing demand BC

The average MLS® residential price in the province was $685,575, an increase of 2.6 per cent from August 2018. Total sales dollar volume was $4.86 billion, a 7.6 per cent increase from the same month last year.

BC home sales continue to recover from a policy-driven downturn,” said BCREA Deputy Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. Home sales have been rising through the spring and summer, but still remain well below pre-B20 stress test levels.”

MLS® residential active listings in the province were up 10 per cent from August 2018 to 40,098 units and were essentially flat compared to July on a seasonally adjusted basis. Overall market conditions remained in a balanced range with a sales-to-active listings ratio of about 18 per cent.    

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 16 per cent to $34.9 billion, compared with the same period in 2018. Residential unit sales were 12.2 per cent lower at 50,806 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 4.4 per cent year-to-date at $686,303.    

Link to BCREA’s site.

BC Homes Sales Set to Normalize in 2020: BCREA 2019 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – September 5, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2019 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 5 per cent to about 75,000 units this year, after recording 78,505 residential sales in 2018. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 11 per cent to 82,700 units in 2020, just below the 10-year average for MLS® residential sales of 85,800 units.

“BC markets are showing signs of recovery after nearly a year and a half of policy-induced declines,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Deputy Chief Economist. “We expect that recovery to continue into next year, with home sales normalizing around long-term averages.”

A recovery in home sales has slowed the accumulation of resale inventory, with active listings still well short of the previous peak in 2012. That leaves market conditions at the provincial level essentially balanced with little upward pressure on prices. We anticipate that the MLS® average price will decline 2.4 per cent in 2019 before rising modestly by 3 per cent to $718,000 in 2020.

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