Canada’s ‘Housing Bubble’ Deemed Close to Bursting

This article appeared on CBC News on June 29, 2011.

Canada’s housing market is in a bubble that’s set to burst and prices could plunge by as much as 25 per cent, a major independent research firm warns.

“Housing valuations have lost all touch with fundamentals and household debt is at a record high,” economists at the research consultancy Capital Economics say in their most recent Canada Economic Outlook, issued Wednesday.

“Our fear is that, with the housing bubble now close to bursting and commodity prices retreating, Canada will go from leader to laggard.”

The report predicts a fall in house prices by as much as 25 per cent over the next three years.

A domestic housing boom coupled with high commodity prices worldwide have spared the economy the severe recession felt by other developed countries.

Canada’s economic success could become the thorn in its side as the threat of a downturn in the housing sector looms, the report says.

The firm says a burst housing bubble would shrink real estate investment and hurt consumption — two things that would considerably slow economic growth.

This decline in consumption would mean a slowly rising unemployment rate as well, according to Capital.

The company says Canadian house prices are overvalued by approximately 25 per cent, close to excessive levels seen in the frothy U.S. market at its 2006 peak.

Over-building is already visible; the number of unoccupied houses and condos is at a record high. It closely resembles the 1994-95 housing slump, when the construction industry experienced a severe downturn.

The report forecasts falling house prices and smaller residential investment. Real estate currently makes up 6.8 per cent of Canada’s GDP. Lower prices would mean a hit to household net worth as property now accounts for one-third of a family’s total assets, the report found.

The firm expects the Bank of Canada to stay the course in the near term, as financial worries at home and abroad will keep interest rates at their current level for a while.

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Featured Property: 1189 Howe Road, Aberdeen, Kamloops, B.C. $304,900

1189 Howe Aberdeen Kamloops Real Estate For saleThis Aberdeen doll house has had numerous updates over the past couple years. All the flooring (porcelain tile and laminate) and windows were recently replaced, new hot water tank and it has a fresh coat of paint throughout. Open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, main floor laundry, underground sprinklers, large sun deck with natural gas hook up for a BBQ & storage shed. There are four bedrooms and one bathroom. One bedroom would make a great rec room for all to enjoy. There is a large, private, fenced back yard that backs on to a green belt. Beautiful unobstructed city views from many of the windows in this home. This is a great home for a first time home buyer, investor or for someone wanting to downsize. Why buy a townhouse when you can have your own detached home?

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Open House Weekend: Saturday, August 13 and Sunday, August 14, 2011, Aberdeen, Batchelor Heights, Brocklehurst, Upper Sahali and Westsyde

On Saturday, August 13th and Sunday, August 14th, 2011 open houses will be held in Aberdeen, Batchelor Heights, Brocklehurst, Upper Sahali and Westsyde.

Kamloops Property 2181 Perryville Pl WestsydeSaturday, August 13th, 2011: 11:00-12:30: 2181 Perryville Place, Westsyde, $339,900

Immaculate Westsyde home with river views…numerous updates include furnace, hot water tank, central A/C, flooring, kitchen, 2 bathrooms, patio, most windows, external doors, paint, mouldings, more.

2070 Pala Mesa Pl Brock Kamloops Property For SaleSaturday, August 13th, 2011: 1:00-2:30: 2070 Pala Mesa Place, Brocklehurst, $319,900

Tastefully updated solid Brock home in quiet cul-de-sac. 3+1 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms with suite potential recent updates include flooring, appliances, paint, window coverings, baseboards & more.

Kamloops House 1846 Grouse Crt Batchelor Heights Saturday, August 13th, 2011: 1:00-3:00: 1846 Grouse Court, Batchelor Heights, $489,900

Beautiful level entry Batchelor Heights rancher with a large, bright 1 bedroom inlaw suite with separate laundry. Hardwood flooring, and tile throughout the home. 3 bedrooms on the main floor with 2 full bathrooms, more.

Kamloops Home 1189 Howe Aberdeen Real Estate Sunday, August 14th, 2011: 11:00-12:30: 1189 Howe Road, Aberdeen, $304,900

This Aberdeen doll house has had numerous updates over the past couple years. All the flooring (porcelain tile and laminate) and windows were recently replaced, new hot water tank and it has a fresh coat of paint throughout. more

Kamloops For Sale 506 Garibaldi Dr Upper Sahali Sunday, August 14th, 2011: 1:00-2:30: 506 Garibaldi Drive, Upper Sahali, $389,500

This upper Sahali rancher with open floor plan has had many updates in the past few years which include; new flooring, kitchen, paint, light fixtures, some internal doors, bathroom, furnace 7 years old, appliances, landscaping and more.

Kamloops House 2211 Greenfield Ave Brock Sunday, July 14th, 2011: 1:00-3:00: 2211 Greenfield Avenue, Brocklehurst, $348,900

Spacious, updated Brock home close to Elementary &  Middle Schools, transportation and shopping. This home features a vaulted living room and dining room ceiling, updated kitchen, recently painted inside and out, new flooring, more.

To view all homes for sale in Kamloops click here.

B.C. Home Sales and Average Prices Rise in July

This article appeared on the Vancouver Sun on August 11th, 2011 and was written by Brian Morton.

B.C. home sales rose 12.9 per cent to 6,533 units in July compared to July 2010, while the average price climbed 10 per cent to $541,000, the B.C. Real Estate Association reported Thursday.

However, there was a wide discrepancy in price increases around the province, with Metro Vancouver continuing to show the highest increase.

But price increases in Metro Vancouver are slowing down, and are expected to slow down even further in the coming months.

“In Metro Vancouver, the price numbers have been inflated over the past several months as higher end [single detached] properties selling in pricier neighbourhoods [pushed] the average price higher,” BCREA chief economist Cameron Muir said in an interview. “But this is unlikely to be sustained over the longer term.”

Muir expects the number of single detached homes sold in pricier neighbourhoods like West Vancouver and Vancouver’s west side won’t be as high a proportion as experienced in recent months.

“Three months ago, the average price [in Metro Vancouver] was growing 25 per cent year over year,” he said. “Now, it’s dropped to 16 per cent.”

According to the survey, Metro Vancouver saw a 15.9-per-cent increase in the average price of a residential property in July compared to July 2010, from $658,000 to $762,000. The Fraser Valley recorded a 9.7-per cent increase, from $459,000 to $504,000.

However, the Okanagan Mainline recorded a minuscule 0.5-per-cent increase, from $406,000 to $408,000, while Kamloops saw a 7.6-per-cent decline, from $311,000 to $287,000. Victoria recorded a six-per-cent decline, from $497,000 to $467,000.

Muir noted that housing demand in the near future could be bolstered by lower interest rates as investors flock to bonds and bank analysts predict the Bank of Canada will keep its overnight target rate steady in light of the U.S. Federal Reserve saying it expected that an increase in rates would not be warranted, given the state of the U.S. economy, until 2013.

He said that recent global economic uncertainty means that mortgage rates have the potential to reach record lows in the coming weeks as investors flock into bond markets. “This will mean added purchasing power and affordability for consumers.”

Year-to-date, B.C. residential sales dollar volume increased 16.5 per cent to $28.2 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales increased one per cent to 48,628 units, while the average residential price for houses sold through the multiple listings service rose 15.3 per cent to $579,645, BCREA said.

Muir noted that home sales edged down four per cent from June to July on a seasonally adjusted basis. “Less frenetic buying activity in Vancouver operated to pull total provincial sales lower.”

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