Category: National Real Estate News

This article appeared on the Vancouver Sun’s Website on December 20th, 2011 and was written by Tracy Sherlock.

Canada’s real estate market is strong compared to its global counterparts, but the boom has lasted longer than in most other countries and shows signs of waning, a Scotiabank report said.

“The Canadian housing market remains an outperformer among advanced nations, with real home prices up 4.8 per cent year over year in [the third quarter],” Scotiabank’s Global Real Estate Trends report said. “While the sector’s continued buoyancy is impressive, monthly data through November suggest prices have levelled off since the spring, with conditions in the majority of local markets in ‘balanced’ territory.”

The report credits “ultralow” interest rates with continuing to attract buyers, while economic uncertainty and some recent slowing in hiring are possible dampers on demand in Canada. Canada is at the top of the 10 countries included in the report. Five countries — the U.S., the U.K., Ireland, Spain and (to a lesser extent) Italy — show average house prices significantly lower than their peak values, while the other five countries — Canada, Australia, France, Sweden and Switzerland — still show average prices at or near record highs.

The cycle of rising real home prices is long, lasting on average 12 years, according to the Scotiabank report.

“Italy’s boom was the shortest at eight years, while Ireland and Sweden count 15 years. Canada’s ongoing housing boom is in its 13th year,” the report states.

Canada’s house prices did not rise as steeply as those in other countries, with inflation-adjusted average home prices up 85 per cent since 1998, according to the report.

“Canada’s residential real estate boom started several years later than many of its counterparts, with the economy still feeling the effects of the deep recession of the early 1990s and weak labour markets through mid-decade,” the report says.

Link

The Demographia 7th Annual International Housing Affordability Survey for 2011 is out. It rates metropolitan markets for affordability of the housing in each market. Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the United States and China (Hong Kong) are all discussed. I have included a portion of the report below. You can access the full report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

The 7th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey expands coverage to 325 markets in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. This edition marks the addition of Hong Kong. The Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey employs the ―Median Multiple‖ (median house price divided by gross annual median household income) to rate housing affordability(see chart ES-1 on page 7) . The Median Multiple is widely used for evaluating urban markets, and has been recommended by the World Bank and the United Nations Harvard University Joint Center on Housing.

Housing Affordability in 2010

Housing affordability was little changed in 2010, with the most affordable markets being in the United States and Canada. The United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand continue to experience pervasive unaffordability.

All Markets

Among all 325 markets surveyed, there were 115 affordable markets, 106 in the United States and 9 in Canada. There were 94 moderately unaffordable markets, 74 in the United States, 17 in Canada and 3 in Ireland. There were 42 seriously unaffordable markets and 74 severely unaffordable markets. Australia had 27 severely unaffordable markets, followed by the United Kingdom with 21 and the United States with 15. Canada had 6 severely unaffordable markets, while New Zealand had 4. China’s one included market, Hong Kong, was also severely unaffordable.

Vancouver remains one of the most Severely Unaffordable markets with only Sydney, Australia and Hong Kong being more unaffordable.

Click here to read the full report.

I found this audio track on the NPR (National Public Radio: United States). They discuss the Canadian economic position versus the American. It is a short three minute piece. This was posted by the NPR on December 11th, 2011. I have included the short introduction below and the link to the broadcast.

America’s biggest trade partner, Canada, sailed through the economic downturn almost unscathed, with low unemployment, no mortgage crisis and not a single major bank failure. As part of WBEZ’s Front and Center series, Brian Mann reports on how Canada emerged as one of the world’s most stable and prosperous economies. Link to Audio

Link to article

This article appeared on The Canadian Real Estate Magazine on December 8th, 2011.

The real estate market in Canada is headed toward a 10%-15% drop in prices over the next few years, as interest rates eventually increase, said the CIBC’s Benjamin Tal on Thursday.

The CIBC economist also forecast that the Canadian economy will have a lackluster 2012, although will avoid recession.

Tal said the average price of a house has risen 28% from a cyclical low in January 2009. But that average has been largely skewed by strong activity in relatively expensive markets of Vancouver and Toronto, he said, whereas the overall national market is more multi-dimensional.

“But even a multi-dimensional market can overshoot,” said Tal. “And the likelihood is that prices in the Canadian market and its sub-segments are higher than what can be explained by factors such as income growth, rent, and household formation.”

He fell short of calling the pending price drops a sign of a bubble in the Canadian market, however.

Short of a huge macro shock, the risk is small that in the near term a large-scale forced selling materializes and triggers a precipitous plunge in house prices,” said Tal.

As for the national economy, CIBC predicted a 3% growth in the global economy next year, well below the 5% pre-recession rate.

“As an open economy, Canada can’t help but feel the disappointment of a barely half-speed world,” said Avery Shenfield, chief economist at CIBC.

Shenfield said Canada’s economy will grow by 2% over the next two years, with the jobless rate remaining about the same as now.

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