BC Homes Sales Set to Normalize in 2020: BCREA 2019 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – September 5, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2019 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 5 per cent to about 75,000 units this year, after recording 78,505 residential sales in 2018. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 11 per cent to 82,700 units in 2020, just below the 10-year average for MLS® residential sales of 85,800 units.

“BC markets are showing signs of recovery after nearly a year and a half of policy-induced declines,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Deputy Chief Economist. “We expect that recovery to continue into next year, with home sales normalizing around long-term averages.”

A recovery in home sales has slowed the accumulation of resale inventory, with active listings still well short of the previous peak in 2012. That leaves market conditions at the provincial level essentially balanced with little upward pressure on prices. We anticipate that the MLS® average price will decline 2.4 per cent in 2019 before rising modestly by 3 per cent to $718,000 in 2020.

Housing Demand Improves in July, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – August 13, 2019. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,930 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in July, an increase of 12.4 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $684,497, a decline of 1.6 per cent from July 2018. Total sales dollar volume was $5.43 billion, a 10.5 per cent increase from the same month last year.

“BC home sales climbed higher for the first time in 18 months on a year-over-year basis in July,” said BCREA Chief Economist Cameron Muir. Housing demand has also trended higher since March, rising 21 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis. “Households appear to be adjusting to the tighter credit environment as the shock of the B20 stress test dissipates.” 

MLS® residential active listings in the province trended lower in July, down 3 per cent from June and 6 per cent from April on a seasonally adjusted basis. Active listings were up 12.4 per cent to 41,621 units on a year-over year basis, while overall market conditions remained unchanged from 12 months ago with the sales-to-active listings ratio at 19.1 per cent.   

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 18.9 per cent to $30 billion, compared with the same period in 2018. Residential unit sales decreased 14.4 per cent to 43,612 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 5.3 per cent to $687,413.

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