B.C. Real Estate Association’s Housing Forecast for 2009 to 2010

The B.C. Real Estate Association released their Spring 2009 housing report recently. I have included the Kamloops specific information below from this report. Click here for the full report from BCREA.

Homes sales in Kamloops are beginning to rebound from the lows experience during the fall and winter months. While the weaker provincial economy will continue to impact housing demand, sales activity is expected to improve through the balance of the year. A sizable increase in affordability is beginning to increase first-time buyer activity in the marketplace. The combination of lower home prices and historically low mortgage interest rates has made homes more affordable than at any time in the last two years. At the beginning of April, the carrying cost on the average priced home was 24 per cent less than a year ago. An increase in first-time buyers lubricates the chain of ownership by allowing move-up buyers to more easily sell their current homes and complete their new purchase.

While home sales are expected to improve in the coming months, low sales levels in the first quarter will pull down the annual total. MLS® residential sales in Kamloops are forecast to decline a further 17 per cent to 1,860 units this year. A moderate improvement is expected in 2010, with MLS® residential sales expected to climb 8 per cent to 2,000 units.

Recent data suggests market conditions in Kamloops are improving. Active listings are trending lower with home sales edging higher. The large imbalance between supply and demand that was evident early in the year is beginning to wane. A continuation of this trend will likely cause home prices to stabilize in the next quarter. The average annual MLS® residential price is forecast to be 9 per cent lower this year. However, most of this decline has already occurred and more price stability is expected for the balance of the year.

Housing starts in the Kamloops CA will follow the provincewide pull-back this year. Housing starts are forecast to decline 45 per cent to 320 units in 2009 and then increase 14 per cent to 365 in 2010. Slowing growth in the housing stock will help stabilize home prices by reducing the total number of homes available for purchase in Kamloops.

BCREA website.

Mortgage Rates: Time To Get Pre-approved or Rethink Your Mortgage

This article is from the Vancouver Sun written by Fiona Anderson. Many Kamloops residents are getting great rates on their mortgages; both refinance and pre-approval rates. Now many first time buyers have a chance to own a home. Read below for the full article.

Have a fixed-rate mortgage at 4.5 per cent or higher? Then you should be refinancing, says Steve Moffitt, senior mortgage consultant with Equimac Mortgage Centre in Vancouver. “There’s never been a better opportunity historically, never, for doing a refinancing, ” he adds.

If only it were that simple. In fact, determining whether you should refinance or not depends largely on the penalty you will pay to get out of your current mortgage, and the amount of money you could save with a new one.

The first part of the equation — the penalty — is not easy to calculate. Most fixed-term mortgages charge the greater of three months’ interest or what’s called the “interest differential.” This latter amount is the difference between the interest you would have paid for the remainder of your mortgage term and the amount the bank can earn lending out the money now.So if you have a five-year mortgage at 5.25 per cent with three years left to go, and the bank’s current three-year rate is 4.5 per cent, you’ll have to pay the difference.

Often the amount of the penalty is about the same as the savings to the borrower, “so it’s a wash,” says Feisal Panjwani, a senior mortgage consultant with Invis. Moffitt’s magic number of 4.5 per cent uses the penalty of three months’ interest, which he says he sees often. But which penalty will apply really depends on the particular mortgage. So both Panjwani and Moffitt encourage people to ask their mortgage professional to crunch the numbers for them.

The current best five-year fixed-rate available is 4.19 per cent for most borrowers, Panjwani says. And he believes the rate could go as low as 3.99 per cent in the near future. The best variable rate is the prime lending rate set by the banks plus 0.8 percentage points, which today translates into 3.3 per cent. With rates that low, everyone who currently is paying 4.5 per cent or higher should probably do the math because there could be thousands of dollars in savings.

One way to save may be switching from a fixed- to a variable-rate mortgage, because with the variable rate so low, the savings are more likely to outpace the penalty costs, Panjwani says. But because the rate does change, “that’s risky,” he adds.

Some people are refinancing their mortgages not for the savings but rather to lock in today’s low rates for five years, Panjwani says. For example, if someone has three years left in their mortgage term, they may not save any money in the first three years of the new mortgage because of the penalty. But they have guaranteed today’s rate for two years after that. Keep in mind, however, that there are costs associated with refinancing that have to be added to the equation, Panjwani says.

One group of borrowers who need not worry about refinancing are those who were already in variable-rate mortgages. In the past, those rates were calculated as prime less a premium, and some outstanding mortgages chop off as much as 0.9 percentage points. With prime now at 2.5 per cent, those people are paying 1.6-per-cent interest. That number can’t be beat, especially considering prime could go down even further. “Anyone on a variable floating below prime, I would say those people should probably hang onto that mortgage,” Panjwani says.

The low mortgage rates also have buyers knocking on lenders’ doors. Last month, 40 per cent of Panjwani’s business came from purchasers rather than those looking to refinance. While the split is normally 50-50 between the two, in the last few months only about 20 per cent were purchases, he says.

Carolyn Heaney, an area manager with BMO Bank of Montreal’s business development group, says her bank has seen a lot more first-time homebuyers. The combination of low mortgage rates and lower prices means people who have wanted to live in a particular area but couldn’t afford it now can, she says.

At the current variable mortgage rate, a $200,000 mortgage with a 25-year amortization, would have payments of about $980 a month, she says. At a fixed rate of 4.39 per cent, the payments would be about $1,100. “So it’s very affordable for people to get into the market,” Heaney says.

Tranquille (Padova) Real Estate Development, Kamloops

Tranquille, also known as Padova is located at the eastern bay of Kamloops Lake. It is a beautiful piece of real estate that has been sitting vacant and overgrown for numerous years and it’s future has often been questioned. Recently the Kamloops This Week reported that plans are in the works to develop this site. I have included the article written by Melissa Lampman below detailing those plans.

After years uninhabited, worn and dilapidated buildings and mounds of overgrown vegetation are the only things still visible on the site of the historic Tranquille Sanatarium. But looking through the eyes of the property’s owners, it’s the beginning of what will one day be an extraordinary agrarian resort town.

BC wilderness Tours, owner of the property since 2000, shared it’s vision  this week. Estimated at $1 billion by completion, Tranquille on the Lake will be built around a 300-acre farm and feature eco-friendly and sustainable lifestyles. “We want to develop it into something we have never seen in the past,” said Tim McLeod, the company’s development manager. “We think it’s world class, we think it’s unusual and it’s in Kamloops.”

After getting the nod from the City of Kamloops, the plan is to design an entire town of about 4,000 people around a state-of-the-art organic farm, including greenhouses and a vineyard. The town will include lake shore pathway systems, a public beach, a marina, a five-star hotel and a mix of single and multi-family housing that’s affordable for most people.

“It’s not going to be gated. It’s not for the rich and famous – it’s for Kamloops,” McLeod said. The plan includes construction of 1,200 to 1,800 units at an average of 1,000 square feet, each designed so that 80 per cent of the sites remain as green space. In designing the town, the developers plan to use healthy building practices, such as recycled and energy-efficient materials, as well as incorporating solar and geothermal technologies. “It will take about 15 years to build entirely,” he said. “But we’re doing it for the love of healthy and healthy living.”

However, there are many inherent challenges – and Phase I is expected to cost about $100 million. Among the priorities is building a new water-supply pipeline, getting rid of the $1.5 million worth of asbestos, eliminating all lead paint and dismantling most of the existing site.

McLeod said the developers will restore and reuse as much of the original buildings and infrastructure as possible, including the old fire house and some of the cottages as well as fully restoring the sunken gardens and cemetery. “It’s going to take $5 to $6 million to take the town apart,” he said, adding they will be working with the historic society. “We’ve got quite a complex site…but we’ll be retaining it’s history and preserving it as we move forward.”

Phase I is slated to begin in the spring with other developments getting underway in 2010.

More information can be found here: Tranquille on the lake

Should You Sell Or Rent Your Kamloops Home?

Many home owners today in Kamloops are wondering whether they should sell or rent. Homes are on the market for a longer period of time. More homes listings are expiring and many homeowners are getting frustrated with the recent decline in Kamloops real estate prices. I have heard numerous times in the past few months “I am going to rent my home for a year and sell it at a later time”. This plan works in theory, but when you dig deeper the rate of return on capital makes keeping the property a poor investment depending on the numbers.

Capitalization rate is a measure of the ratio between the net operating income produced by an asset (real estate) and its capital cost (the original price paid to buy that real estate) or alternatively its current market value. I have found a capitalization rate calculator that indicates “Rent” or “Sell” once you input the numbers for your property. This calculator makes the decision very straight forward. Unless you are receiving around a 5.7% rate of return, holding on to a property and renting it is not beneficial to you according to this calculation.

Click here to try the Rent or Sell calculator.

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