British Columbia Real Estate Associations MLS® Transaction Sales Statistics For B.C.: 2nd Quarter of 2010

The British Columbia Real Estate Association released sales statistics from all B.C. Real Estate boards comparing the MLS® transaction volumes for 2009 and 2010. I have included all charts including the larger Real Estate board areas for the sake of comparison. Click on the image to enlarge.

Kamloops Housing Market 2010 vs. 2009 sales MLS transactions by Board Area Statistics Information

Kamloops Real Estate MLS Transaction Volume and Statistics by Board Area

BC Housing Market 2010 Quarter 2 charts statistics Information

BC Housing Market 2nd Quarter 2010 MLS Transaction Sales Statistics

2010 Year To Date MLS Transactions By Board Area Statistics 2nd Quarter Larger Real Estate Board Area

2010 Year To Date MLS Transactions By Board Area Statistics 2nd Quarter Larger Real Estate Board Area

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BC Real Estate Association: Home Buyers Are In The Drivers Seat In 2010

This article was released by the British Columbia Real Estate Association mid-August 2010. There are a number of graphs and sales data in the original document including Kamloops specific information. To view the original document (link removed). I have included the basic information below.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province declined 42 per cent to 5,784 units in July compared to the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, MLS® residential unit sales in the province declined 19 per cent in July from June 2010. The average MLS® residential price climbed 6 per cent to $491,832 in July compared to the same month last year.

“A relatively large number of homes for sale have created the most favourable supply conditions for home buyers in more than a year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. MLS® active residential listings were 21 per cent higher in July than at the start of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, with newly listed MLS® residential units now declining, tighter market conditions may emerge this fall.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 16 per cent to $24.2 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales rose 4 per cent to 48,127 year-to-date, while the average MLS® residential price climbed 13 per cent to $504,281 over the same period.

BCREA

B.C. Real Estate Association’s Second Quarter Housing Forecast for 2010

The B.C. Real Estate Association has released it’s Quarterly Housing Forecast for 2010. Included in this report is the Housing Forecast Summary, where all the real estate board areas are shown individually. (link removed) to view the full report with the charts. Information from the report is included below.

Residential units sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC are forecast to ease back 3 per cent to 82,350 units in 2010, before climbing 4 per cent to 85,900 units in 2011. Waning pent-up demand, upward pressure on mortgage interest rates and tighter lending qualifications for low equity home buyers will moderate consumer demand this year, particularly on the South Coast.

Improving economic conditions, however, are expected to counterbalance some of the erosion in affordability caused by higher mortgage interest rates and tighter lending.

Stronger economic and employment growth in 2011 will bolster housing demand and push home sales higher. Regionally, home sales are forecast to edge lower in Vancouver, Victoria and the Fraser Valley as the dramatic rebound in consumer demand experienced during the latter half 2009 was induced by short-term factors of pent-up demand and favourable interest rates.

The North is expected to post the strongest percentage gains in unit sales as a result of reinvigorated demand for commodities and the associated employment growth. The rest of the province is expected to continue along a trajectory of gradually improving consumer demand in line with overall provincial economic performance.

After climbing 2.4 per cent in 2009, the average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase a further 6.2 per cent this year before remaining relatively unchanged in 2011, albeit up 1 per cent. Vancouver, Victoria and the Fraser Valley comprise two-thirds of provincial home sales and the 2009 year-over-year change in BC home prices largely reflect gains already realized in those markets.

Seller’s market conditions have now given way to balanced conditions in the Lower Mainland and Victoria as moderating consumer demand and a larger inventory of homes for sale are quelling upward pressure on home prices.

B.C. Housing Starts Increase, But Hike May Be Short-Lived

By Raphael Alexander, Vancouver Sun

I wrote in early January about the “bubble” economy in British Columbia, which, despite the Olympics-related building, still resulted in a massive collapse in the construction industry in tandem with the recession. Construction jobs contracted by 11.9 per cent in the province in 2009, as we were one of the last districts in Canada to feel the effects of the global economic meltdown.

Although January construction numbers are up to 198,600 jobs, it is below the 202,100 jobs from a year ago, and a far cry from the 220,800 jobs during the boom.

The good news is that new construction is on the rise in the province, with the seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts reaching 186,300 units in January, a 5.8-per-cent increase from December.

That’s much better than the 149,081 housing units to begin 2009, but the construction starts have progressed steadily until now, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. It’s even better than the figure that economists from financial institutions had been predicting.

In cities, housing starts are up 4.4 per cent, and within those numbers the increase of multiple urban starts [like condos] also increased by 5.7 per cent. All of those numbers show a recovery from the recession, with confidence in the housing market improving, and home sales rising again.

But the victory may be short-lived, with experts predicting the bubble will pop when the harmonized sales tax kicks in on July 1.

Home buyers will likely advance their demand for houses before the HST is implemented, meaning fewer purchases in late 2010 and early 2011.

This is forecast by the Canadian Real Estate Association itself, which says that not only the 12-per-cent HST, but also higher interest rates, which must inevitably rise after historically prolonged lows, will push real estate down in 2011.

B.C.’s housing resale market is forecast to jump 19.8 per cent for 2010, with average home prices going up by 4.2 per cent to $485,500. But the bulk of those sales will be before the HST and the Bank of Canada interest rate revisions.

Interest rate increases are likely to further dampen the housing market in 2011, with an expected decline of 7.1 per cent in the number of units sold. B.C.’s market is forecast to see the largest decline of 12.9 per cent to 88,800 units sold in 2011.

Even though the market is expected to fall in 2011, the prices of homes in B.C. are expected to decline only 1.8 per cent, meaning that investors will still be making a profit with the dip. That means there’s no relief for homebuyers who were hoping the astronomical prices of an average home in Vancouver would go down.

The median sale value of a home in Vancouver in 2009 was $540,900, while median household income was $58,200. According to The Demographia International report which calculates home affordability in an index that divides the price of a home by household income, Vancouver is the most expensive city among 272 metropolitan markets in Canada, the U.S., the U.K., Australia, New Zealand and Ireland.

The “Median Multiple” gives Vancouver an index of 9.3 in affordability, much higher, for instance, than Kamloops, where the median family income is $67,434 while the price of a home is $257,242, giving a Median Multiple of 3.8.

 

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