Category: B.C. Real Estate News

BCREA 2021 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – October 28, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2021 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 29 per cent to 121,450 units this year, after recording 94,013 sales in 2020. In 2022, MLS® residential sales are forecast to pull back 15 per cent to 102,750 units.

“After a frenzied start to the year, activity in BC housing markets has settled back to a level that is broadly in-line with long-run trends. The strength of the first half of this year has sales on track to easily break the previous record for annual sales,” said BCREA Chief Economist, Brendon Ogmundson. “While we do not anticipate a repeat of the record-setting market of 2021, we do expect housing market activity to remain vigorous in 2022,” added Ogmundson.

Given strong demand and very low active listings, particularly in smaller markets around BC, the average home price in BC is projected to rise 17 per cent in 2021. Prices are forecast to rise about 3 per cent in 2022 as the composition of home sales changes due to normalizing demand for single-family homes and a recovery in active listings helps the market balance out.

Click here to visit to BCREA’s website. To view other statistics for the Kamloops and BC real estate market click here.

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BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson discusses the September 2021 statistics.

The provincial housing market has calmed in terms of home sales which are more in line with the long running averages for the month of September. Unit sales provincially were down 19.9%. The inventory continues to be low with the interior close to 40% below year over year. Demand is normalizing at this time the low inventory has kept the market in the Seller’s market territory with tight conditions. The average price for BC was up 14% year over year.

For Kamloops there were 305 unit sales in September 2021, that is down 11.6%. The average price for that same time is $550,284 which is a 9.2% year over year increase. At the end of September there were 671 active listings which is a 35.5% decrease year over year. The inventory equates to 2.2 months worth of supply.

Click here to visit to BCREA’s website. To view other statistics for the Kamloops and BC real estate market click here.

If you want to be kept informed on Kamloops Real Estate, News and more visit our Facebook Page.

To search for Kamloops real estate and homes for sale click here.

This Market Intelligence Housing report was created by BCREA in October 2021. You can find the full report here.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for housing surged across BC despite a severe recession and closed borders. As a result of the crisis and lockdowns, homebuyers prioritized square footage over characteristics such as proximity to the urban core. This preference shift generated considerable relocation demand as square footage could be more easily purchased in smaller, less densely populated regions. Home prices rose in smaller markets, which did not have adequate housing supply to absorb the large and sudden increase in demand.

In this Market Intelligence, we use a novel modelling approach to estimate the total number of interested buyers over the course of the pandemic and highlight which regions suffered the most severe imbalances of supply and demand.

Summary Findings:
The unusual circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic produced an unexpected and substantial increase in housing demand while the supply of listings fell.

As a result, buyers outnumbered sellers by as much as 2.5 to 1 in some months with markets in Victoria and the Fraser Valley seeing more than 7 potential buyers for every seller.

While demand has normalized somewhat, most provincial markets remain severely under-supplied and therefore far from balanced.

Interior
A major theme observed during the pandemic was the relocation of buyers into less densely populated areas of the province. That trend is evident in our estimates for demand in BC’s Interior. Like all of BC, the buyer-toseller ratio in the Interior trended at a lower level prior to the pandemic following the introduction of the B20 mortgage stress test in 2018. During the pandemic the ratio briefly fell before surging to record levels. It then receded as frenetic market activity, rapidly rising prices, and dwindling supply may have discouraged potential buyers.

Interestingly, markets in the Okanagan and Kamloops are estimated to have had a much more acute imbalance of supply and demand during the pandemic compared to the Kootenay. In those markets, we estimated that during the peak months of market activity, buyers outnumbered sellers by as much as 3 to 1.

Click here to visit to BCREA’s website. To view other statistics for the Kamloops and BC real estate market click here.

If you want to be kept informed on Kamloops Real Estate, News and more visit our Facebook Page.

To search for Kamloops real estate and homes for sale click here.

Vancouver, BC – October 12, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,164 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September 2021, a decrease of 19.9 per cent from September 2020. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $913,471, a 14 per cent increase from $801,241 recorded in September 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $8.4 billion, an 8.6 per cent decline from last year.

“Home sales have settled at levels that are slightly above long-term average,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The main story in all markets continues to be a severe lack of listings supply, particularly in Fraser Valley, Vancouver Island and Interior markets.”

Total active residential listings were down 36.8 per cent year-over-year in September for the province as a whole and were more than more than 50 per cent below last September’s levels in the Fraser Valley and Victoria.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 81.8 per cent to $90.4 billion, compared to the same period in 2020. Residential unit sales were up 52.4 per cent to 99,182 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 19.3 per cent to $911,195.

Click here to visit to BCREA’s website. To view other statistics for the Kamloops and BC real estate market click here.

If you want to be kept informed on Kamloops Real Estate, News and more visit our Facebook Page.

To search for Kamloops real estate and homes for sale click here.