Record BC Home Sale Forecast Despite Vancouver Slowdown: BCREA 2016 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – August 25, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2016 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to climb 10.4 per cent to a record 113,000 units this year, eclipsing the previous record of 106,310 units in 2005. Housing demand is expected to moderate next year, with home sales declining nearly 8 per cent to 104,400 units. However, housing demand is expected to remain well above the ten-year average of 85,000 unit sales.

MLS Residential Sales July August 2016“The introduction of a 15 per cent tax on foreign national home buyers in Metro Vancouver is expected to accelerate a moderating trend in the market that began earlier in the year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, other regions of the province are performing above expectations and at the provincial level, largely offsetting Metro Vancouver’s deceleration.”

The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase 11 per cent to $706,900 this year and a further 5.2 per cent to $743,700 in 2017.

“While the cyclical nature of housing markets can exact a harsh toll on affordability in the short term, there is some relief for beleaguered home buyers on the horizon, added Muir. Housing starts in the province are expected to reach near record levels this year, and the highest amount since 1993. In Metro Vancouver, a record number of homes are now under construction. “A moderation in housing demand combined with a rising number of both new and resale homes on the market is expected to create more balance and less upward pressure on home prices.”

Housing Market Slows to a Simmer in BC, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – August 11, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 9,900 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in July, down 3.4 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.57 billion in July, up 5.4 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was up 9.1 per cent year-over-year, to $663,411.
MLS Residential Sales  BC July August 2016
“Housing demand has moderated in many regions of the province, after setting records earlier in the year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The less frenetic pace of home sales will likely provide a much needed boost to the inventory of homes for sale. The rate of home price appreciation is also expected to slow from the unsustainable level exhibited this spring.“

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 45.5 per cent to $56.5 billion, when compared with the same period in 2015. Residential unit sales climbed by 25 per cent to 77,261 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 16.4 per cent to $731,189.

Tight Market Conditions Prevail Around the Province, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – July 14, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a record 12,906 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in June, up 14.3 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $8.97 billion in June, up 25.7 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was up 10 per cent year-over-year, to $694,925.

BC Sales to Active Listings Ratio July 2016“Robust housing demand in the Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island and the Okanagan drove sales growth in June,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. “At the same time, the inventory of homes for sale continues to slide lower, creating very tight market conditions around the province.“

“The supply of resale homes is remarkably low across BC, but particularly so in Victoria and the Fraser Valley,” added Ogmundson. The sales-to-active listings ratio has eclipsed 60 per cent in both Victoria and the Fraser Valley, corresponding to less than two months of supply given current demand.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 53.2 per cent to $49.9 billion, when compared with the same period in 2015. Residential unit sales climbed by 30.6 per cent to 67,361 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 17.3 per cent to $741,150.

Record Home Sales Creates Wave of New Home Construction, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – June 15, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a record 13,458 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May, up 32.3 per cent from the same month last year. Home sales last month exceeded April’s record of 12,969 units. Total sales dollar volume was $9.72 billion in May, up 51.1 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was up 14.2 per cent year-over-year, to $722,146.

MLS Residential Sales & Housing Starts BC June 2016“Record housing demand and dwindling inventories are continuing to push home prices higher in most BC regions,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Total active residential listings across the province are nearly 30 per cent lower than twelve months ago.“

“New home construction activity is at a near record pace in the province,” added Muir. In the Metro Vancouver market, a record number of homes are now under construction. “Once the current crop of homes are ready for occupancy there will likely be more selection for home buyers and less upward pressure on home prices.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 62 per cent to $41 billion, when compared with the same period in 2015. Residential unit sales climbed by 35.2 per cent to 54,455 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 19 per cent to $752,105.

Record Breaking Housing Demand Sweeps BC: BCREA 2016 Second Quarter Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – June 2, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2016 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

MLS Residential Sales June 2016 second quarterMultiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to climb 12.3 per cent to a record 115,200 units this year, eclipsing the previous record of 106,310 units in 2005. Housing demand is expected to pull back by 8.3 per cent to 105,600 units in 2017. Strong economic fundamentals are expected to underpin the housing market and produce above average consumer demand through 2017. The ten-year average for the province is 83,000 MLS® residential unit sales.

“Robust employment growth and a marked increase in migration from other provinces is buoying consumer confidence and housing demand in most regions of the province,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Record housing demand has depleted inventories in many urban areas, and the resulting imbalance between supply and demand has pushed home prices considerably higher.”

The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to increase 20.4 per cent to $766,600 this year and a further 3.4 per cent to $792,800 in 2017.

New home construction activity has ramped up to meet the extraordinary demand for housing. Waning inventories of newly completed and unoccupied units are being offset by a marked increase in the number of homes under construction. Total housing starts in the province are forecast to climb 20 per cent to 37,800 units this year, before edging back to 34,200 units in 2017.

BC Home Sales Continue to Smash Record Book, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – May 13, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a record 12,969 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April, up 30.3 per cent from the same month last year. Home sales last month beat March’s record of 12,560 units. Total sales dollar volume was $9.64 billion in April, up 52.7 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was up 17.2 per cent year-over-year, to $743,640.

MLS Residential Sales May 2016“Housing demand is exceptionally strong across the southern regions of the province,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Consumers appear to be particularly active in the Vancouver Island, the Fraser Valley and the Thompson/Okanagan regions.“

“Strong employment growth is helping underpin consumer confidence,” added Muir. The BC economy employed more than 78,000 additional workers during the first four months of the year, an increase of 3.5 per cent compared to the same period last year.

The year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 64.3 per cent to $31.2 billion, when compared with the same period in 2015. Residential unit sales climbed by 36.2 per cent to 28,028 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 20.6 per cent to $761,860.

BC Home Sales Post All Time Record, BCREA Update for April 2016

Vancouver, BC – April 15, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a record 12,560 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March, up 38 per cent from March of last year. Home sales last month eclipsed the previous record of 11,683 unit sales in May of 2007. Total sales dollar volume was $9.69 billion in March, up 66.9 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was up 20.2 per cent year-over-year, to $771,620.

MLS Residential Sales April 2016“Housing demand has never been stronger in the province,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Most large population centres of the province are now experiencing record levels of housing demand.“

“Strong employment growth, rising wages and a marked increase in net inter-provincial migration is fueling consumer confidence,” added Muir.

Supply imbalances are becoming increasingly common as new residential listings are not keeping pace with consumer demand. As a result, the inventory of homes for sale is at decade-long lows in many regions.

The year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 70.1 per cent to $21.59 billion, when compared with the same period in 2015. Residential unit sales climbed by 39.2 per cent to 28,028 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 22.2 per cent to $770,408.


BCREA Housing Market Update (April 2016)

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