BC Home Sales to Exceed 100,000 Units for 3rd Consecutive Year, BCREA 2017 2nd Quarter Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – June 19, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

MLS Residential Sales June 2017

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 10 per cent to 101,000 units this year, after reaching a record 112,209 units in 2016. Housing demand gained strength this spring, as some of the effects of federal and provincial policy efforts to tamp it down dissipate. In addition, strong market fundamentals continue to underpin an elevated level of home sales. The ten-year average for MLS residential sales in the province is 84,700 units.

 

“The province is in its fourth year of above-trend economic growth,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Strong employment growth, consumer confidence and an influx of inter-provincial migrants are important drivers of the housing market this year.” In addition, with the millennial generation now entering their household forming years, the condominium market in major urban centres is experiencing pressure on supply.

The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to decline 1.1 per cent to $683,500 this year, and increase 5.2 per cent to $719,100 in 2018. The decline in the provincial average price is largely due to rising demand for more affordable condominiums and a larger proportion of home sales occurring outside the Metro Vancouver region. The supply of homes for sale is at a 20-year low in the province, with sellers’ market conditions prevelant across most BC regions and home types.

Housing Supply Not Keeping Pace with Demand in Most BC Regions, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – June 13, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 12,402 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May, down 7.9 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $9.33 billion, down 4.0 per cent from May 2017. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $752,536, a 4.2 per cent increase from the same period last year.

MLS Market Conditions June 2017“Market conditions have tightened considerably this spring as an upturn in consumer demand has not been accompanied by a rise in homes listed for sale,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The supply of homes for sale in the province has fallen 50 per cent over the past five years.”

“The entire southern portion of the province is experiencing a shortage of housing supply, which makes continuing upward pressure on home prices inevitable, at least in the near term,” added Muir. Total active listings in the province were down 11.1 per cent to 28,404 units from May 2016. The ratio of home sales to active listings was well over 20 per cent in nine of the province’s 11 real estate boards, and over 50 per cent in Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack and Victoria.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 25.2 per cent to $30.6 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 20.1 per cent to 43,158 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 5.7 per cent to $709,541.

BC Home Sales Turn Higher, Inventories at 20-Year Low, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – May 15, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) that a total of 9,865 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April, down 23.9 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $7.19 billion, down 25.4 per cent from April 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $728,955, a 2 per cent decrease from the same period last year.

MLS Residential Sales May 2017“BC home sales are on an upward trend this spring, led by a sharp increase in consumer demand in the Lower Mainland,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of home sales was over 106,000 units in April, significantly above the five-year SAAR for April of 89,000 units.

The supply of homes for sale declined 17 per cent from April 2016. On a seasonally adjusted basis, active residential listings have declined 50 per cent since 2012 and are now at their lowest level in over 20 years. The imbalance between supply and demand is continuing to drive home prices higher in most regions, further eroding affordability.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 31.8 per cent to $21.3 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 25.0 per cent to 30,757 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 9.2 per cent to $692,220.

Housing Demand Normalizes as Supply Dwindles, BCREA

Vancouver, BC – April 13, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,826 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March, down 21.8 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.79 billion, down 30 per cent from March 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $690,597, a 10.5 per cent decrease from the same period last year.
BC MLS Active Listings 2017 April“Consumer demand continues to normalize following blockbuster home sales in 2016,” says Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. “However, the supply of homes available for sale has not recovered and is still declining in many markets around the province.”

Although the average price in BC was down year-over-year due to a shift in the composition of sales away from higher-priced homes in Greater Vancouver, home prices in most markets are being pushed higher due to severe supply constraints. This is particularly true for the Victoria region, which currently has just over one month of inventory for sale, as well as for the apartment and townhouse market in the Lower Mainland.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 34.7 per cent to $14.1 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 25.5 per cent to 20,893 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 12.4 per cent to $674,856.

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